21 July 2026

Aarhus vs Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Full time1 – 4

Final score: Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Aarhus, 18% draw, 62% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 5.00, 5.56 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 62% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽M. Ishakassist: J. Pereira
•Jesper Hansen
36'
Jesper Hansen
37'
🔁S. Jorgensenout: M. Hedenstad
40'
42'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: A. Kozubal
Gift Links
45+6'
50'
Radosław Murawski
54'
🔁R. Murawskiout: F. Jagiello
⚽K. Arnstadassist: F. Emmery
55'
61'
⚽T. Yegbeassist: W. Monka
65'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: L. Palma
66'
🔁P. Walemarkout: L. Bengtsson
66'
🔁M. Ishakout: Y. Agnero
66'
🔁L. Palmaout: D. Hakans
69'
Yannick Agnero
🔁J. Jensen-Abbewout: J. Andersen
73'
🔁M. Andersonout: K. Yakob
73'
🔁T. Bechout: J. Bogere
73'
79'
🔁J. Pereiraout: R. Gumny
🔁G. Linksout: T. Kristjansson
83'

Match stats — Aarhus vs Lech Poznan

43%Possession57%
12Shots18
4On target7
4Corners2

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-3
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 40J. Jensen-AbbewD
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10K. Arnstad
  • 39F. EmmeryM
  • 8S. JorgensenF
  • 31T. BechF
  • 23M. AndersonF
Substitutes
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 42M. van der Raad
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 13J. SerraF
  • 17K. YakobM
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 22O. Haugstrup
  • 28J. BogereF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
  • 21P. RodriguezM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 9M. IshakF
Substitutes
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 35M. PruchniewskiG
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 4J. MoutinhoD
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 90H. JanyszkaD
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshF
Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Aarhus and Lech Poznan in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
11AarhusSuperliga8044915-64
3Lech PoznanEkstraklasa7511126+616

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · Ekstraklasa

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Lech Poznan

  • 21 July 2026Aarhus 1–4 Lech PoznanUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Lech Poznan

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.