21 July 2026

Aarhus vs Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Full time1 – 4

Final score: Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Aarhus, 18% draw, 62% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 5.00, 5.56 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Lech Poznan v Aarhus, 29 Jul →

Aarhus went through on penalties, after 4–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 62% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽M. Ishakassist: J. Pereira
•Jesper Hansen
36'
Jesper Hansen
37'
🔁S. Jorgensenout: M. Hedenstad
40'
42'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: A. Kozubal
Gift Links
45+6'
50'
Radosław Murawski
54'
🔁R. Murawskiout: F. Jagiello
⚽K. Arnstadassist: F. Emmery
55'
61'
⚽T. Yegbeassist: W. Monka
65'
⚽P. Walemarkassist: L. Palma
66'
🔁P. Walemarkout: L. Bengtsson
66'
🔁M. Ishakout: Y. Agnero
66'
🔁L. Palmaout: D. Hakans
69'
Yannick Agnero
🔁J. Jensen-Abbewout: J. Andersen
73'
🔁M. Andersonout: K. Yakob
73'
🔁T. Bechout: J. Bogere
73'
79'
🔁J. Pereiraout: R. Gumny
🔁G. Linksout: T. Kristjansson
83'

Match stats — Aarhus vs Lech Poznan

43%Possession57%
12Shots18
4On target7
4Corners2

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-3
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 40J. Jensen-AbbewD
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10K. Arnstad
  • 39F. EmmeryM
  • 8S. JorgensenF
  • 31T. BechF
  • 23M. AndersonF
Substitutes
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 42M. van der Raad
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 13J. SerraF
  • 17K. YakobM
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 22O. Haugstrup
  • 28J. BogereF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
  • 21P. RodriguezM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 9M. IshakF
Substitutes
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 35M. PruchniewskiG
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 4J. MoutinhoD
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 90H. JanyszkaD
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshF
Coach: Niels Frederiksen

The result against the call

Lech Poznan won 4–1 at Aarhus. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Ishak 29' for Lech Poznan, P. Walemark 42' for Lech Poznan, K. Arnstad 55' for Aarhus, T. Yegbe 61' for Lech Poznan, P. Walemark 65' for Lech Poznan. Sent off: Jesper Hansen (Aarhus) 37'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.