11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Sturm Graz, 20% draw, 58% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.55, 5.00 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm Graz (5 Aug) →

Fenerbahçe went through 3–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz0%Draw4%Fenerbahçe96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Nélson Semedo
45'
Archie Brown
🔁S. Jattaout: B. Beganovic
61'
🔁A. Malicout: J. Heil
61'
🔁A. Kayomboout: N. Weiper
61'
62'
🔁N. Semedoout: M. Muldur
63'
🔁M. Asensioout: Fred
63'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: O. Aydin
66'
⚽Talisca (pen)
🔁J. Gorenc Stankovicout: R. Fosso
70'
73'
🔁N. Kanteout: I. Yuksek
77'
🔁Taliscaout: V. Muriqi
🔁P. Petrovicout: P. Koller
79'
Jeyland Mitchell
84'
89'
Kerem Aktürkoğlu

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

50%Possession50%
19Shots11
2On target6
7Corners6

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 28J. HeilM
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 34M. GunokG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 10M. AsensioM
  • 9K. AkturkogluM
  • 94TaliscaF
Substitutes
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 75K. SapazG
  • 7FredM
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 26S. CherifF
  • 19V. MuriqiF
  • 4C. SoyuncuD
Coach: Ismail Kartal

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Fenerbahçe5 August 2026
  • D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Fenerbahçe

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
  • W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

  • 5 August 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League
  • 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
  • 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

No leading scorers listed yet.

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe won 1–0 at Sturm Graz. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Talisca (penalty) 66' for Fenerbahçe.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.