Sturm Graz
vs
Fenerbahçe
The model makes it 25% Sturm Graz, 22% draw, 53% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.45, Fenerbahçe 2.14.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sturm Graz
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Fenerbahçe has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
- 5 August 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League
- 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
- 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers
Sturm Graz
- S. Włodarczyk1 goals
Fenerbahçe
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.97 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sturm Graz D; Fenerbahçe W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Sturm Graz and 2.14 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.88 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.11 and 0.87.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 2.14 for Fenerbahçe. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.87 for Fenerbahçe.