Sabah FA
vs
Aarhus
The model makes it 38% Sabah FA, 25% draw, 37% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sabah FA 1.50, Aarhus 1.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sabah FA
No earlier matches on record this season.
Aarhus
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Aarhus
- 5 August 2026Aarhus 2–1 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers
Sabah FA
No league goals recorded yet.
Aarhus
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad2 goals
- J. Jønsson1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sabah FA carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sabah FA W-W-W-W-L; Aarhus D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Sabah FA and 1.48 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabah FA rate 0.65 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.73 and 1.22.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Sabah FA against 1.48 for Aarhus. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.22 for Aarhus.