CSKA 1948
vs
Panathinaikos
The model makes it 64% CSKA 1948, 19% draw, 17% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 1.56, 5.26 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 2.53, Panathinaikos 1.28.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA 1948
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026
Panathinaikos
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | First League | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Panathinaikos has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Panathinaikos
- 5 August 2026Panathinaikos 1–1 CSKA 1948UEFA Europa Conference League
- 5 July 2023CSKA 1948 0–1 PanathinaikosFriendlies Clubs
- 5 July 2023Panathinaikos 1–0 CSKA 1948Friendlies Clubs
The two sides
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.39 for Panathinaikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA 1948 D-W-W; Panathinaikos W-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for CSKA 1948 and 1.28 for Panathinaikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.80 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panathinaikos rate 0.67 and 1.67.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 1.28 for Panathinaikos. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.67 for Panathinaikos.