Kauno Žalgiris
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 26% Kauno Žalgiris, 26% draw, 48% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kauno Žalgiris 1.14, Dinamo Zagreb 1.64.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kauno Žalgiris
No earlier matches on record this season.
Dinamo Zagreb
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Head-to-head: Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 4 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers
Kauno Žalgiris
- V. Slivka2 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kauno Žalgiris carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.62 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kauno Žalgiris D-W-D-W-L; Dinamo Zagreb W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.64 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.53 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.71 and 1.14.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris against 1.64 for Dinamo Zagreb. Kauno Žalgiris's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.14 for Dinamo Zagreb.