Kairat Almaty
vs
Levski Sofia
The model makes it 34% Kairat Almaty, 27% draw, 39% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kairat Almaty 1.35, Levski Sofia 1.46.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kairat Almaty
No earlier matches on record this season.
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Head-to-head: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia
- 4 August 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League
The two sides
Kairat Almaty carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.61 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kairat Almaty W-W-L-L; Levski Sofia W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Kairat Almaty and 1.46 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kairat Almaty rate 0.72 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.56 and 0.99.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kairat Almaty against 1.46 for Levski Sofia. Kairat Almaty's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/0.99 for Levski Sofia.