UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 5 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul

The model makes it 71% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 13% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.77, Sturm Graz 1.16.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

65%
Both teams to score
75%
Over 2.5 goals
25%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 9%3-1 8%2-0 8%

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

  • 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
  • 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.16 for Sturm Graz. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.32 for Sturm Graz.