5 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 13% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Sturm Graz v Fenerbahçe, 11 Aug →

Fenerbahçe went through 3–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fenerbahçe99%Draw1%Sturm Graz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Taliscaassist: K. Akturkoglu
9'
21'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
🔁J. Oosterwoldeout: A. Brown
30'
⚽M. Greenwoodassist: M. Asensio
45'
46'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: A. Kayombo
58'
Jurgen Heil
64'
🔁S. Seidlout: G. Mamageishvili
64'
🔁L. Weinhandlout: R. Fosso
64'
🔁S. Jattaout: N. Weiper
65'
Axel Kayombo
🔁M. Greenwoodout: Fred
69'
🔁M. Asensioout: I. Kahveci
69'
🔁N. Semedoout: M. Muldur
85'
🔁K. Akturkogluout: O. Aydin
85'
87'
🔁J. Hodlout: B. Beganovic

Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

72%Possession28%
17Shots5
10On target1
4Corners2

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 34M. GunokG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 24J. OosterwoldeD
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 10M. AsensioM
  • 9K. AkturkogluM
  • 94TaliscaF
Substitutes
  • 31EdersonG
  • 7FredM
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 20A. MusabaF
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 26S. CherifF
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Coach: Ismail Kartal
Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 32C. Wiener-PucherG
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 44N. WeiperF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

Fenerbahçe

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
  • W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026

Sturm Graz

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

  • 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
  • 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Sturm Graz

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe beat Sturm Graz 2–0. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Talisca 9' for Fenerbahçe, M. Greenwood 45' for Fenerbahçe.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.