Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 13% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 71% here. Across 2454 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
Line-ups
- 34M. GunokG
- 27N. SemedoD
- 37M. SkriniarD
- 15N. AkeD
- 24J. OosterwoldeD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 91N. KanteM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 10M. AsensioM
- 9K. AkturkogluM
- 94TaliscaF
- 31EdersonG
- 7FredM
- 18M. MuldurD
- 5I. YuksekM
- 20A. MusabaF
- 3A. BrownD
- 14Y. E. DemirD
- 26S. CherifF
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 5A. VallciD
- 2J. MitchellD
- 18E. SogloD
- 43J. HodlM
- 39L. WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 17S. WlodarczykF
- 20S. JattaF
- 22A. HelacG
- 32C. Wiener-PucherG
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 80R. FossoM
- 26B. BeganovicF
- 21P. PetrovicD
- 30P. KollerD
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 44N. WeiperF
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026
Sturm Graz
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
- W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | UEFA Champions League | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Champions League · Bundesliga
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
- 5 August 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League
- 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
- 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.