Apollon Limassol
vs
Brann
The model makes it 41% Apollon Limassol, 24% draw, 35% Brann — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Apollon Limassol 1.73, Brann 1.59.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Apollon Limassol
No earlier matches on record this season.
Brann
- W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026
- L2-3Valerenga26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Molde18 July 2026
- W2-1Start12 July 2026
- L1-2Sarpsborg 08 FF29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Brann
- 5 August 2026Brann 0–1 Apollon LimassolUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers
Apollon Limassol
No league goals recorded yet.
Brann
- N. Holm5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Apollon Limassol carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.51 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Apollon Limassol W-W-W; Brann L-W-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Apollon Limassol and 1.59 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apollon Limassol rate 0.66 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.70 and 1.39.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apollon Limassol the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Apollon Limassol against 1.59 for Brann. Apollon Limassol's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.39 for Brann.