Bodo/Glimt
vs
Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 57% Bodo/Glimt, 23% draw, 20% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 1.92, Union St. Gilloise 1.06.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bodo/Glimt
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
- W2-0away to KFUM Oslo12 July 2026
Union St. Gilloise
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | +30 | 38 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Union St. Gilloise has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise
- 4 August 2026Union St. Gilloise 3–3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
- 3 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers
Bodo/Glimt
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
Union St. Gilloise
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bodo/Glimt carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.69 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Bodo/Glimt W-W-W-W-W; Union St. Gilloise D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.06 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodo/Glimt rate 0.93 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 0.79 and 1.09.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 1.06 for Union St. Gilloise. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.09 for Union St. Gilloise.