11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Aspmyra Stadion
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Bodo/Glimt, 26% draw, 37% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bodo/Glimt at 37% here. Across 2811 settled matches, 2138 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodo/Glimt4%Draw92%Union St. Gilloise4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sondre Auklend
16'
🔁J. Gundersenout: H. Aleesami
41'
⚽O. Blombergassist: J. Hauge
51'
61'
🔁P. Davidout: M. Fuseini
61'
⚽Guilherme Smithassist: D. Olaru
🔁S. Auklendout: J. Kitolano
70'
🔁O. Brynhildsenout: A. Helmersen
70'
70'
🔁A. Zorganeout: R. Schoofs
74'
🔁D. Olaruout: M. Biondic
⚽J. Haugeassist: A. Helmersen
76'
81'
Kamiel Van de Perre
88'
⚽M. Fuseiniassist: L. Patris
90+6'
Guilherme Smith
90+6'
Kamiel Van de Perre
90+6'
Kamiel Van de Perre
91'
🔁B. Zeneliout: R. Mofokeng
Haitam Aleesami
92'
🔁F. Bjorkanout: I. Maatta
103'
🔁S. Fetout: U. Saltnes
104'
117'
Kevin Mac Allister
⚽A. Helmersen
117'
🔁J. Haugeout: V. Nielsen
120+1'
120+1'
🔁L. Patrisout: R. Florucz
120+1'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: O. Niang

Match stats — Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise

70%Possession30%
23Shots19
9On target5
10Corners1

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt 4-3-3
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjovoldD
  • 4O. L. BjortuftD
  • 6J. GundersenD
  • 15F. BjorkanD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 11O. BlombergF
  • 17O. BrynhildsenF
  • 10J. HaugeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LundG
  • 14U. SaltnesM
  • 16J. KitolanoM
  • 25I. MaattaD
  • 24D. BassiF
  • 5H. AleesamiD
  • 9A. HelmersenF
  • 23M. RiisnaesM
  • 2V. NielsenD
Coach: Kjetil Knutsen
Union St. Gilloise 3-5-2
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 12P. DavidF
  • 28D. OlaruF
Substitutes
  • 71K. Boets
  • 18G. KavlashviliG
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 7M. FuseiniF
  • 22O. NiangM
  • 9M. Biondic
  • 38R. MofokengF
Coach: David Hubert

Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise

Bodo/Glimt

  • D3-3away to Union St. Gilloise4 August 2026

Union St. Gilloise

  • W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
  • D3-3Bodo/Glimt4 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 11 August 2026Bodo/Glimt 3–2 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Union St. Gilloise 3–3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
  • 3 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.