Plymouth
vs
Peterborough
League One prediction
Our model says: Plymouth 2–1 Peterborough
The model makes it 56% Plymouth, 24% draw, 20% Peterborough — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Plymouth 2.06, Peterborough 1.05.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Plymouth: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Plymouth's rating is built from 60 League One matches and Peterborough's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Plymouth are 5th on 23 points from 14 games; Peterborough are 22nd on 10 points from 13 games — League One.
- Plymouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Reading.
- Peterborough are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Luton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Peterborough 0–1 Plymouth.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Plymouth vs Peterborough
Has the model earned this number?
Plymouth at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Plymouth vs Peterborough
Plymouth
League One
- D0-0Reading31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
- L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026
- W2-1AFC Wimbledon10 October 2026
Peterborough
League One
- L0-2Luton31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
- D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
What these results say
- Plymouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 23 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Plymouth
Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today
Peterborough
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 47% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Peterborough
- 17 January 2026Peterborough 0–1 PlymouthLeague One
- 20 September 2025Plymouth 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
- 25 February 2023Peterborough 5–2 PlymouthLeague One
- 13 August 2022Plymouth 2–0 PeterboroughLeague One
- 10 August 2022Plymouth 0–2 PeterboroughLeague Cup
- 10 August 2021Peterborough 0–4 PlymouthLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Plymouth and Peterborough
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple50
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plymouth a 3.2% chance of the title and Peterborough 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plymouth against 1.05 for Peterborough. Plymouth's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.07 for Peterborough.
How the model reaches 56% for Plymouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Plymouth to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Plymouth's ratings add 7 points and Peterborough's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Plymouth's ratings49%+7
- Peterborough's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Plymouth at home · Peterborough away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Plymouth 14, Peterborough 13.
Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Peterborough have let in 4 there.
Peterborough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Plymouth have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Plymouth
- at Wigan28 Nov · League Onewin 42%
- vs Bromley1 Dec · League Onewin 69%
- at Notts County12 Dec · League Onewin 32%
- vs Mansfield Town19 Dec · League Onewin 43%
Peterborough
- vs Cambridge United28 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- at Leyton Orient1 Dec · League Onewin 23%
- vs Barnsley12 Dec · League Onewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.