KV Mechelen
vs
Genk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: KV Mechelen 1–2 Genk
The model makes it 31% KV Mechelen, 26% draw, 43% Genk — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: KV Mechelen 1.31, Genk 1.65.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Genk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- KV Mechelen are 14th on 6 points from 8 games; Genk are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- KV Mechelen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to St. Truiden.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
- Last 6 meetings: Genk 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended KV Mechelen 2–3 Genk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: KV Mechelen vs Genk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genk at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into KV Mechelen vs Genk
KV Mechelen
- W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
- L0-1Anderlecht11 September 2026
- L0-4KVC Westerlo5 September 2026
- D2-2away to RAAL La Louvière29 August 2026
Genk
- W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026
- D1-1Gent13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
What these results say
- KV Mechelen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- KV Mechelen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
KV Mechelen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Genk
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs Genk
- 13 February 2026KV Mechelen 2–3 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 23 November 2025Genk 0–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 18 January 2025KV Mechelen 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 28 September 2024Genk 2–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 11 February 2024KV Mechelen 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 22 October 2023Genk 4–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and Genk
KV Mechelen
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Genk
GoalsAssists
- R. Durosinmi60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KV Mechelen carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.83 for Genk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for KV Mechelen and 1.65 for Genk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KV Mechelen rate 0.81 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genk rate 0.97 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KV Mechelen a 0% chance of the title and Genk 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genk the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for KV Mechelen against 1.65 for Genk. KV Mechelen's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1 for Genk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KV Mechelen at home · Genk away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KV MechelenGenk
KV Mechelen are 14th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 14th and 17th so far); Genk are 6th after 8 (between 4th and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: KV Mechelen 8, Genk 8.
Genk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); KV Mechelen have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
KV Mechelen
- at OH Leuven7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Club Brugge KV21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 14%
- at Cercle Brugge28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Union St. Gilloise13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
Genk
- at Union St. Gilloise8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
- vs RAAL La Louvière21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at St. Truiden29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs OH Leuven11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.