SK Beveren
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 13% SK Beveren, 22% draw, 65% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 7.69, 4.55 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: SK Beveren 0.72, Union St. Gilloise 2.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SK Beveren are 11th on 9 points from 8 games; Union St. Gilloise are 4th on 20 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- SK Beveren have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Lommel United.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OH Leuven.
- Last 3 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 December 2023, ended SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. Gilloise.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 65% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
SK Beveren
- L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
- W2-0St. Truiden12 September 2026
- W3-0OH Leuven6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Genk28 August 2026
Union St. Gilloise
- D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise
- 7 December 2023SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. GilloiseCup
- 27 April 2019SK Beveren 3–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 6 April 2019Union St. Gilloise 5–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise
SK Beveren
GoalsAssists
- C. Lokesa40
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz40
- R. Mofokeng31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
SK Beveren carry a model rating of 6.52 against 7.19 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.72 goals for SK Beveren and 2.17 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SK Beveren rate 0.71 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 1.23 and 0.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SK Beveren a 0% chance of the title and Union St. Gilloise 33.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for SK Beveren against 2.17 for Union St. Gilloise. SK Beveren's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.63 for Union St. Gilloise.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SK Beveren at home · Union St. Gilloise away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SK BeverenUnion St. Gilloise
SK Beveren are 11th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 8th and 14th so far); Union St. Gilloise are 4th after 8 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: SK Beveren 8, Union St. Gilloise 8.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SK Beveren have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SK Beveren
- at Standard Liege6 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
- vs Gent22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
- at Charleroi28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
- vs Cercle Brugge12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
Union St. Gilloise
- at Celta Vigo5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 42%
- vs Genk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 60%
- at Kortrijk22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 72%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.