FC Dallas
vs
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Dallas 2–1 Seattle Sounders
The model makes it 44% FC Dallas, 28% draw, 28% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.83, Seattle Sounders 1.24.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Dallas are 3rd on 47 points from 27 games; Seattle Sounders are 7th on 38 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- FC Dallas are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Los Angeles FC.
- Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sporting Kansas City.
- Last 6 meetings: Seattle Sounders 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC Dallas.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
- W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
- 26 April 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025FC Dallas 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 23 June 2024Seattle Sounders 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 11 November 2023Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.46 for Seattle Sounders. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for FC Dallas and 1.24 for Seattle Sounders. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.76 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Seattle Sounders rate 0.60 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 7.9% chance of the title and Seattle Sounders 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.24 for Seattle Sounders. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.32 for Seattle Sounders.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Dallas at home · Seattle Sounders away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Dallas 27, Seattle Sounders 27.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Seattle Sounders have let in 12 there.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); FC Dallas have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Dallas
- at Houston Dynamo18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- vs San Jose Earthquakes25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
- vs Columbus Crew29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
- at Sporting Kansas City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
Seattle Sounders
- vs CF Montreal18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- at San Diego25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Houston Dynamo29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.