Real Salt Lake
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes
The model makes it 38% Real Salt Lake, 27% draw, 35% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.67, San Jose Earthquakes 1.58.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Real Salt Lake are 11th on 32 points from 27 games; San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 45 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Real Salt Lake have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to New England Revolution.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Portland Timbers.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2025, ended Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 27 July 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 23 April 2023Real Salt Lake 3–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd15 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.48 for San Jose Earthquakes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.58 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.61 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.72 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0% chance of the title and San Jose Earthquakes 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.58 for San Jose Earthquakes. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.5 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Salt Lake at home · San Jose Earthquakes away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Real Salt Lake 27, San Jose Earthquakes 27.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Real Salt Lake have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Real Salt Lake
- at Sporting Kansas City18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs St. Louis City25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Austin29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
- at San Jose Earthquakes31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
San Jose Earthquakes
- vs Nashville SC18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- at FC Dallas25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Colorado Rapids29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- vs Real Salt Lake31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.