St. Louis City
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: St. Louis City 2–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 37% St. Louis City, 27% draw, 36% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.70, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.67.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- St. Louis City are 2nd on 47 points from 27 games; Vancouver Whitecaps are top on 50 points from 26 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to New York Red Bulls.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to DC United.
- Last 6 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 St. Louis City.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 47 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 6 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 April 2025St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024St. Louis City 1–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 4–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
- Rafael Navarro15 goals3 assists
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White17 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.73 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for St. Louis City and 1.67 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.83 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.88 and 1.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vancouver Whitecaps, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 15.5% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 74.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.67 for Vancouver Whitecaps. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.12 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St. Louis City at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: St. Louis City 27, Vancouver Whitecaps 26.
St. Louis City score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Vancouver Whitecaps have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
St. Louis City
- at Minnesota United FC17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- at Real Salt Lake25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- vs Portland Timbers29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs San Diego31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Vancouver Whitecaps
- at Austin18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
- at Colorado Rapids25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- vs San Diego29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.