Round of 32 · 20 November 2026, 00:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction

Our model says: Orlando City SC 2–1 FC Cincinnati

The model makes it 48% Orlando City SC, 21% draw, 31% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.08, 4.76 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).

Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.56, FC Cincinnati 1.97.

Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Orlando City SC's rating is built from 69 MLS matches and FC Cincinnati's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.

Key facts

  • Orlando City SC are 8th on 46 points from 34 games; FC Cincinnati are 9th on 46 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
  • Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to New England Revolution.
  • FC Cincinnati have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nashville SC.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Orlando City SC 1–1 FC Cincinnati.

More MLS predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

80%
Both teams to score
83%
Over 2.5 goals
17%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Orlando City SC win Draw FC Cincinnati win
  1. 2–17%
  2. 2–27%
  3. 3–16%
  4. 3–26%
  5. 1–16%
  6. 1–25%
  7. 2–35%

Scores read Orlando City SC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 59%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Orlando City SC at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer

  • W1-0New England Revolution7 November 2026
  • L0-4away to Charlotte31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Chicago Fire29 October 2026
  • D2-2New York City FC24 October 2026
  • W4-1DC United17 October 2026

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer

  • L0-2Nashville SC7 November 2026
  • W1-0Philadelphia Union31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to DC United24 October 2026
  • W2-1DC United21 October 2026

What these results say

  • Orlando City SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
  • FC Cincinnati scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Orlando City SC34137146378-1546
9FC Cincinnati341210126775-846

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

  • 15 August 2026Orlando City SC 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 23 May 2026FC Cincinnati 6–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 February 2026Orlando City SC 3–2 FC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 September 2025FC Cincinnati 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 June 2025Orlando City SC 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2024FC Cincinnati 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Orlando City SC FC Cincinnati
0.84 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.73 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66
2.56 Model expected goals (this match) 1.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.97 for FC Cincinnati. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.66 for FC Cincinnati.

How the model reaches 48% for Orlando City SC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Orlando City SC to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Orlando City SC's ratings add 1 point and FC Cincinnati's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. Orlando City SC's ratings48%+1
  5. FC Cincinnati's ratings48%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Orlando City SCFC Cincinnati
33Matches33
12W 7D 14LRecord12W 10D 11L
62 1.9 per gameGoals scored67 2.0 per game
78 2.4 per gameGoals conceded73 2.2 per game
4 of 33Clean sheets4 of 33
6 of 33Failed to score5 of 33
5 of 5Penalties scored6 of 6
75 2.3 per gameYellow cards67 2.0 per game
2Red cards7
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape3-5-2 13×

Orlando City SC at home · FC Cincinnati away

16Played17
9W 3D 4LRecord3W 7D 7L
32–22Goals for – against28–43
3 of 16Clean sheets1 of 17

League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Major League Soccer matches this season: Orlando City SC 33, FC Cincinnati 33.

Orlando City SC scored 714611918
FC Cincinnati conceded 4141417814

Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 14 there.

FC Cincinnati scored 761411824
Orlando City SC conceded 8131117917

FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (24 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 17 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.