Seattle Sounders
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Seattle Sounders 2–1 Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 41% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 31% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.52, Real Salt Lake 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Seattle Sounders's rating is built from 71 MLS matches and Real Salt Lake's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Seattle Sounders are 8th on 46 points from 34 games; Real Salt Lake are 9th on 45 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Seattle Sounders have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Los Angeles FC.
- Real Salt Lake have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Salt Lake 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 September 2026, ended Seattle Sounders 2–0 Real Salt Lake.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
Has the model earned this number?
Seattle Sounders at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer
- W2-1Los Angeles FC8 November 2026
- L1-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 November 2026
- L0-1Houston Dynamo29 October 2026
- D2-2away to San Diego25 October 2026
- D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer
- W2-1Los Angeles Galaxy8 November 2026
- L1-2away to San Jose Earthquakes31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Austin29 October 2026
- W3-0St. Louis City25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Sporting Kansas City18 October 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Real Salt Lake had three goals or more.
- Real Salt Lake won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
- 24 September 2026Seattle Sounders 2–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2026Real Salt Lake 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 12 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2025Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.26 for Real Salt Lake. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.38 for Real Salt Lake.
How the model reaches 41% for Seattle Sounders to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Seattle Sounders to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Seattle Sounders's ratings take away 1 point and Real Salt Lake's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Seattle Sounders's ratings41%−1
- Real Salt Lake's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Seattle Sounders at home · Real Salt Lake away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Seattle Sounders 34, Real Salt Lake 34.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Real Salt Lake have let in 11 there.
Real Salt Lake score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Seattle Sounders have let in 14 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.