Round of 16 · 21 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction

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Our model says: New England Revolution 1–2 Philadelphia Union

The model makes it 36% New England Revolution, 26% draw, 38% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.51, Philadelphia Union 1.59.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. New England Revolution's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Philadelphia Union's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.

Key facts

  • New England Revolution are 3rd on 58 points from 34 games; Philadelphia Union are 6th on 50 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
  • New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Orlando City SC.
  • Philadelphia Union have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Toronto FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution.

More MLS predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

63%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

New England Revolution win Draw Philadelphia Union win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read New England Revolution first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Philadelphia Union at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

New England Revolution

Major League Soccer

  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC7 November 2026
  • L1-2Inter Miami2 November 2026
  • W3-2New York Red Bulls28 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Philadelphia Union24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026

Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer

  • W4-1Toronto FC7 November 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Cincinnati31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Nashville SC29 October 2026
  • L1-2New England Revolution24 October 2026
  • D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026

What these results say

  • New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3New England Revolution34184125547+858
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

  • 24 October 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 May 2026New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 20 September 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2025New England Revolution 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2024Philadelphia Union 5–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2024New England Revolution 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

New England Revolution Philadelphia Union
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.87
1.25 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21
1.51 Model expected goals (this match) 1.59

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for New England Revolution against 1.59 for Philadelphia Union. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.21 for Philadelphia Union.

How the model reaches 38% for Philadelphia Union to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Philadelphia Union to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, New England Revolution's ratings add 3 points and Philadelphia Union's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage31%−6
  3. New England Revolution's ratings34%+3
  4. Philadelphia Union's ratings38%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

New England RevolutionPhiladelphia Union
33Matches33
18W 4D 11LRecord13W 8D 12L
55 1.7 per gameGoals scored62 1.9 per game
46 1.4 per gameGoals conceded51 1.5 per game
6 of 33Clean sheets7 of 33
7 of 33Failed to score7 of 33
7 of 8Penalties scored7 of 8
57 1.7 per gameYellow cards74 2.2 per game
0Red cards4
4-2-3-1 17×Usual shape4-4-2 32×

New England Revolution at home · Philadelphia Union away

17Played17
11W 2D 4LRecord6W 3D 8L
31–20Goals for – against34–33
5 of 17Clean sheets2 of 17

League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Major League Soccer matches this season: New England Revolution 33, Philadelphia Union 33.

New England Revolution scored 661411416
Philadelphia Union conceded 61295912

New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 12 there.

Philadelphia Union scored 559131711
New England Revolution conceded 6695117

Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (17 goals); New England Revolution have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

New England Revolution

  • at Philadelphia Union28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 24%

Philadelphia Union

  • vs New England Revolution28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 52%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.