FC Dallas
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers
The model makes it 48% FC Dallas, 24% draw, 28% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 2.08, Portland Timbers 1.50.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FC Dallas's rating is built from 70 MLS matches and Portland Timbers's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- FC Dallas are 2nd on 58 points from 34 games; Portland Timbers are 7th on 46 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- FC Dallas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Colorado Rapids.
- Portland Timbers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Austin.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Dallas 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
FC Dallas at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer
- W3-1Colorado Rapids8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City31 October 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew29 October 2026
- W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
- W2-0away to Austin8 November 2026
- W3-1Houston Dynamo2 November 2026
- W3-2away to St. Louis City29 October 2026
- W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
- D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 58 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
- 13 September 2026FC Dallas 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 23 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025FC Dallas 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2024FC Dallas 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Portland Timbers
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.50 for Portland Timbers. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.53 for Portland Timbers.
How the model reaches 48% for FC Dallas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Dallas to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Dallas's ratings add 1 point and Portland Timbers's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- FC Dallas's ratings46%+1
- Portland Timbers's ratings48%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Dallas at home · Portland Timbers away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Dallas 34, Portland Timbers 34.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 12 there.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); FC Dallas have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
FC Dallas
- at Portland Timbers29 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Portland Timbers
- vs FC Dallas29 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.