Inter Miami
vs
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Inter Miami 2–1 Columbus Crew
The model makes it 53% Inter Miami, 21% draw, 26% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.54, Columbus Crew 1.63.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Inter Miami's rating is built from 74 MLS matches and Columbus Crew's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Inter Miami are 2nd on 60 points from 34 games; Columbus Crew are 7th on 47 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Inter Miami are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Charlotte.
- Columbus Crew are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter Miami.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew
Has the model earned this number?
Inter Miami at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer
- D3-3Charlotte7 November 2026
- W2-1away to New England Revolution2 November 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati28 October 2026
- L0-2away to New York Red Bulls24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer
- W4-3away to Chicago Fire7 November 2026
- W3-0DC United31 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Dallas29 October 2026
- W4-2Toronto FC24 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
- Columbus Crew won every one of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew
- 27 September 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2026Inter Miami 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Inter Miami 5–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025Columbus Crew 0–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Columbus Crew 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2024Columbus Crew 3–2 Inter MiamiLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Columbus Crew
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.63 for Columbus Crew. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.29 for Columbus Crew.
How the model reaches 53% for Inter Miami to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Inter Miami to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Inter Miami's ratings add 5 points and Columbus Crew's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Inter Miami's ratings51%+5
- Columbus Crew's ratings53%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Inter Miami at home · Columbus Crew away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Inter Miami 33, Columbus Crew 33.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Columbus Crew have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Inter Miami
- at Columbus Crew28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Columbus Crew
- vs Inter Miami28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.