Sparta Praha
vs
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sparta Praha 1–0 Slovan Liberec
The model makes it 50% Sparta Praha, 29% draw, 21% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.46, Slovan Liberec 0.75.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Sparta Praha: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sparta Praha's rating is built from 48 Czech Liga matches and Slovan Liberec's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Sparta Praha are 4th on 24 points from 14 games; Slovan Liberec are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games — Czech Liga.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Plzen.
- Slovan Liberec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bohemians 1905.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 0–2 Sparta Praha.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga
- D1-1away to Plzen8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19051 November 2026
- W5-1Slovácko25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga
- W1-0Bohemians 19057 November 2026
- W2-1away to Pardubice31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slovan Liberec had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec
- 17 May 2026Slovan Liberec 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 14 December 2025Sparta Praha 2–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 17 August 2025Slovan Liberec 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 15 March 2025Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 October 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 18 February 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- L. Mašek40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slovan Liberec (second, with Sparta Praha fourth), while our numbers lean to Sparta Praha. Sparta Praha rate 1.11 in attack and 0.84 in defence, Slovan Liberec 0.70 and 0.87 (lower is better in defence), so Sparta Praha have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Praha a 2.5% chance of the title and Slovan Liberec 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 0.75 for Slovan Liberec. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.87 for Slovan Liberec.
How the model reaches 50% for Sparta Praha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sparta Praha to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Sparta Praha's ratings add 7 points and Slovan Liberec's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level38%−3
- Sparta Praha's ratings45%+7
- Slovan Liberec's ratings50%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sparta Praha at home · Slovan Liberec away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sparta PrahaSlovan Liberec
Sparta Praha are 4th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Slovan Liberec are 2nd after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Sparta Praha 14, Slovan Liberec 13.
Slovan Liberec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Praha
- vs AZ Alkmaar26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 49%
- at Zlin29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 65%
- vs Mlada Boleslav5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 54%
- at Red Bull Salzburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- at Teplice14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%
Slovan Liberec
- at Teplice28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 36%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%
- at Slavia Praha13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 15%
- vs Zlin30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.