Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Paks NB I prediction

Bozsik Arena, Budapest

Our model says: Budapest Honved 1–2 Paks

The model makes it 33% Budapest Honved, 26% draw, 41% Paks — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Budapest Honved 1.51, Paks 1.73.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Paks: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Budapest Honved's rating is built from 12 Hungarian NB I matches and Paks's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.

Key facts

Budapest Honved are 8th on 14 points from 12 games; Paks are 5th on 20 points from 13 games — NB I.
Budapest Honved have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to MTK Budapest.
Paks have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Zalaegerszegi TE.
Last 6 meetings: Paks 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Paks 2–2 Budapest Honved.

More Hungarian NB I predictions

All Hungarian NB I predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Budapest Honved vs Paks

65%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Budapest Honved win Draw Paks win

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%
1–05%

Scores read Budapest Honved first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Paks at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Budapest Honved vs Paks

Budapest Honved

NB I

D2-2away to MTK Budapest7 November 2026
W1-0Kisvarda FC31 October 2026
L0-2Debreceni VSC24 October 2026
W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026

Paks

NB I

W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE7 November 2026
L0-2away to Ferencvarosi TC1 November 2026
W2-0away to Vasas25 October 2026
L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026

What these results say

Budapest Honved scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Budapest Honved had two goals or fewer.
Paks scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	16	19	-3	14
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	24	22	+2	20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Budapest Honved

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 23% today

Win 16%

Draw 24%

Defeat 29%

Paks

Chance to finish in the top three · 33% today

Win 39%

Draw 31%

Defeat 26%

From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Paks

9 August 2026Paks 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
31 October 2024Budapest Honved 1–5 PaksMagyar Kupa
2 November 2023Budapest Honved 2–2 PaksMagyar Kupa
1 April 2023Budapest Honved 1–2 PaksNB I
6 November 2022Paks 5–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
14 August 2022Budapest Honved 3–3 PaksNB I

Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Paks

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Paks

GoalsAssists

M. Pető61
J. Szalai61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Budapest Honved a 0.1% chance of the title and Paks 2.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Budapest Honved Paks

0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.79

1.57 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52

1.51 Model expected goals (this match) 1.73

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Paks the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 1.73 for Paks. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.52 for Paks.

Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.53 for Paks.

How the model reaches 41% for Paks to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paks to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Budapest Honved's ratings add 3 points and Paks's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage32%−5
Both sides at this match's level33%+1
Budapest Honved's ratings36%+3
Paks's ratings41%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Budapest HonvedModelPaks

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

84%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

65%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Budapest HonvedPaks

12Matches13

3W 5D 4LRecord6W 2D 5L

16 1.3 per gameGoals scored24 1.8 per game

19 1.6 per gameGoals conceded22 1.7 per game

3 of 12Clean sheets4 of 13

1 of 12Failed to score1 of 13

2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1

30 2.5 per gameYellow cards25 1.9 per game

1Red cards2

4-4-2 4×Usual shape5-3-2 4×

Budapest Honved at home · Paks away

6Played6

2W 2D 2LRecord2W 1D 3L

7–8Goals for – against8–11

2 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Budapest HonvedPaks

Budapest Honved are 8th after 12 NB I matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Paks are 5th after 13 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All NB I matches this season: Budapest Honved 12, Paks 13.

Budapest Honved scored 222043

Paks conceded 335233

Budapest Honved score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Paks have let in 3 there.

Paks scored 253635

Budapest Honved conceded 122536

Paks score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Budapest Honved

at Vasas28 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
at Ferencvarosi TC3 Dec · NB Iwin 15%
vs Ferencvarosi TC6 Dec · NB Iwin 21%
at Zalaegerszegi TE13 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
vs Gyori ETO FC20 Dec · NB Iwin 27%

Paks

vs Puskas Academy29 Nov · NB Iwin 44%
at Ujpest5 Dec · NB Iwin 39%
vs Nyiregyhaza12 Dec · NB Iwin 55%
at Debreceni VSC19 Dec · NB Iwin 30%
vs Kisvarda FC30 Jan · NB Iwin 50%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.