Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Teplice Czech Liga prediction

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava

Our model says: Baník Ostrava 0–1 Teplice

The model makes it 33% Baník Ostrava, 28% draw, 39% Teplice — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 1.24, Teplice 1.42.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Edge to Teplice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Baník Ostrava's rating is built from 50 Czech Liga matches and Teplice's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.

Key facts

Baník Ostrava are 13th on 14 points from 13 games; Teplice are 6th on 21 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
Baník Ostrava have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Zbrojovka Brno.
Teplice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Pardubice.
Last 6 meetings: Baník Ostrava 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Teplice 2–1 Baník Ostrava.

More Czech Liga predictions

All Czech Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice

55%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Baník Ostrava win Draw Teplice win

1–113%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–08%
0–27%

Scores read Baník Ostrava first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Teplice at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Teplice

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

W3-1away to Zbrojovka Brno7 November 2026
L0-4Plzen1 November 2026
D0-0Sparta Praha18 October 2026
L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026

Teplice

Czech Liga

L1-4Pardubice8 November 2026
W3-1away to Slovácko31 October 2026
D0-0Artis24 October 2026
L0-1away to Mlada Boleslav17 October 2026
D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026

What these results say

Baník Ostrava failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Baník Ostrava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Teplice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Teplice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	10	23	-13	14
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	22	22	0	21

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Baník Ostrava

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today

Win 19%

Draw 28%

Defeat 34%

Teplice

Chance to finish in the top ten · 77% today

Win 86%

Draw 76%

Defeat 70%

From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice

9 May 2026Teplice 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
22 November 2025Teplice 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
17 September 2025Baník Ostrava 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
22 February 2025Baník Ostrava 2–0 TepliceCzech Liga
21 September 2024Teplice 2–3 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
31 March 2024Baník Ostrava 4–1 TepliceCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Teplice

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Teplice

GoalsAssists

M. Pulkrab43
John Auta40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Baník Ostrava v Teplice has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 27% / 29% / 44% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Baník Ostrava's chance of winning, up 6 points.

Baník Ostrava win33%▲ +6
Draw28%▼ −1
Teplice win39%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Baník Ostrava Teplice

0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81

1.37 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.26

1.24 Model expected goals (this match) 1.42

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Teplice the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 1.42 for Teplice. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.26 for Teplice.

How the model reaches 39% for Teplice to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Teplice to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Baník Ostrava's ratings add 3 points and Teplice's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage32%−4
Baník Ostrava's ratings35%+3
Teplice's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Baník OstravaModelTeplice

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

28%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

30%

3 of 10 games

55%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Baník OstravaTeplice

13Matches14

4W 2D 7LRecord6W 3D 5L

10 0.8 per gameGoals scored22 1.6 per game

23 1.8 per gameGoals conceded22 1.6 per game

4 of 13Clean sheets4 of 14

6 of 13Failed to score4 of 14

1 of 1Penalties scored–

22 1.7 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game

3Red cards1

3-4-2-1 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Baník Ostrava at home · Teplice away

6Played6

2W 1D 3LRecord4W 0D 2L

3–10Goals for – against10–7

3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Baník OstravaTeplice

Baník Ostrava are 13th after 13 Czech Liga matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Teplice are 6th after 14 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Czech Liga matches this season: Baník Ostrava 13, Teplice 14.

Baník Ostrava scored 130312

Teplice conceded 535232

Teplice scored 352626

Baník Ostrava conceded 342922

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Baník Ostrava

at Slavia Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 7%
vs Hradec Králové6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 29%
at Artis12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 36%
vs FK Jablonec30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 35%

Teplice

vs Slovan Liberec28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
at Plzen6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 20%
vs Sparta Praha14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 23%
at Zbrojovka Brno30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 39%
at FK Jablonec6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.