29 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Finland vs Belarus UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki
Referee: Nikola Dabanovic
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Finland 0-0 Belarus.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Finland, 29% draw, 40% Belarus — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Belarus at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Finland3%Draw93%Belarus4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Glen Kamaraout: Daniel Håkans
45'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Benjamin Källman
59'
61'
Artem Shumanskiy
61'
🔁Artem Shumanskiyout: Anton Kovalev
61'
🔁German Barkovskiyout: Trofim Melnichenko
62'
🔁Vitali Lisakovichout: Valeri Gromyko
🔁Leo Waltaout: Anssi Suhonen
66'
🔁Adam Markhievout: Santeri Väänänen
66'
68'
•Aleksandr Selyava
71'
Anton Lukashov
Kaan Kairinen
72'
Adam Stahl
86'
87'
🔁Aleksandr Selyavaout: Evgeni Yablonski
🔁Topi Keskinenout: adrian svanback
88'

Match stats — Finland vs Belarus

61%Possession39%
9Shots9
2On target3
8Corners2

Line-ups

Finland 4-3-3
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 3A. StåhlD
  • 4T. MiettinenD
  • 21V. KoskiD
  • 13J. LähteenmäkiD
  • 14K. KairinenM
  • 11A. MarhievM
  • 6G. KamaraM
  • 10L. WaltaF
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
  • 18T. KeskinenF
Substitutes
  • 22D. HåkansM
  • 23L. BergströmG
  • 19B. KällmanF
  • 8R. LodM
  • 17R. MahutaD
  • 5S. MiettinenD
  • 2M. PeltolaD
  • 12V. SinisaloG
  • 16A. SuhonenM
Coach: J. Friis
Belarus 4-4-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 5V. KalininD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 13K. GomanovD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 19A. LukashovM
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 9M. EbongM
  • 7A. ShumanskiyM
  • 11G. BarkovskiyF
  • 17V. LisakovichF
Substitutes
  • 4V. BocherovM
  • 3A. SvirepaM
  • 18T. SimanenkaF
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 15E. ParkhomenkoD
  • 23T. MelnichenkoF
  • 12A. KudravetsG
  • 16A. KovalevM
  • 10V. GromykoM
Coach: V. Goncharenko

Form going into Finland vs Belarus

Finland

UEFA Nations League

  • W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026

Belarus

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Finland421192+77
2Belarus421152+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Finland vs Belarus

  • 9 June 2018Finland 2–0 BelarusFriendlies

Leading scorers: Finland and Belarus

Finland

GoalsAssists

  • L. Walta41
  • J. Pohjanpalo30

Belarus

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Finland and Belarus drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Belarus at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.