Leganes vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 0-2 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Leganes, 30% draw, 41% Castellón — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Castellón
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 2MarvelD
- 11Naim GarcíaM
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 19P. SokoF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 33J. HerreroM
- 31Nico LozanoG
- 9Álex MillánF
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 36Sulaiman MulumbaD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 2Juanjo NietoM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 8BarriM
- 14Iñigo CórdobaM
- 10Israel SueroM
- 16A. JakobsenM
- 9Ousmane CamaraF
- 24D. Muale NzanzaF
- 15I. KostisD
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 20Martín CondeD
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 17F. CastilloM
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
Form going into Leganes vs Castellón
Leganes
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leganes had two goals or fewer.
- Castellón went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Castellón won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 12 |
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Castellón
- 16 January 2026Castellón 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 29 September 2025Leganes 0–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 6 March 2021Leganes 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 4 October 2020Castellón 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Castellón
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero52
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón won 2–0 at Leganes. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Israel Suero Fernández 24' for Castellón, Adam Jakobsen 47' for Castellón. Sent off: Jeremy Mellot (Castellón) 82'.
How the call on Leganes v Castellón has moved
First published on 14 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is Leganes's chance of winning, down 14 points.
- Leganes win29%▼ −14
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Castellón win41%▲ +13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.