29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Slovakia vs Kazakhstan UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Kosicka futbalova arena, Kosice
Referee: Patrik Kolaric
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Slovakia, 29% draw, 28% Kazakhstan — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slovakia at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovakia97%Draw3%Kazakhstan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Ramazan·Karimov
⚽Leo Sauer
26'
David Strelec
28'
35'
⚽Ramazan·Karimovassist: Zhasulan Amir
43'
Islambek Kuat
45'
🔁Ismail Bekbolatout: Aleksandr Mrynskiy
60'
🔁stanislav basmanovout: Galymzhan Kenzhebek
60'
🔁Zhasulan Amirout: Ramazan Orazov
🔁Leo Sauerout: Tomas Bobcek
66'
Martin Valjent
69'
72'
🔁Islambek Kuatout: Damir Kasabulat
🔁David Strelecout: Róbert Boženík
75'
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Ivan Schranz
75'
⚽Dávid Hanckoassist: Ondrej Duda
82'
86'
🔁Arsen Ashirbekout: Elkhan Astanov
🔁Martin Valjentout: David Duris
90+1'
🔁Tomas Suslovout: Tomas Rigo
90+1'

Match stats — Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

75%Possession25%
17Shots3
8On target2
8Corners1

Line-ups

Slovakia 4-3-3
  • 1M. DúbravkaG
  • 4M. ValjentD
  • 14M. ŠkriniarD
  • 21A. ObertD
  • 16D. HanckoD
  • 10T. SuslovM
  • 22S. LobotkaM
  • 8O. DudaM
  • 7L. SauerF
  • 15D. StrelecF
  • 17L. HaraslínF
Substitutes
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 12D. GreifG
  • 13A. KaprálikF
  • 2I. MesíkD
  • 6P. PokornýM
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 18I. SchranzF
  • 23J. SurovčíkG
  • 3D. VavroD
Coach: V. Weiss
Kazakhstan 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. PokatilovG
  • 4A. AshirbekD
  • 23T. ErlanovD
  • 3N. AlipD
  • 14N. ZhagorovD
  • 5I. KuatM
  • 18D. KaramanM
  • 22I. BekbolatM
  • 8Z. AmirM
  • 17S. BasmanovM
  • 9R. KarimovF
Substitutes
  • 7G. KenzhebekM
  • 6D. KasabulatD
  • 21E. AstanovM
  • 12T. AnarbekovG
  • 2S. MaliyD
  • 13A. MrynskiyD
  • 20R. OrazovM
  • 10A. ShushenachevF
  • 19A. TuyakbayevM
Coach: J. van 't Schip

Form going into Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

Slovakia

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0Moldova26 September 2026

Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Slovakia431092+710
4Kazakhstan402257-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

  • 13 June 2022Kazakhstan 2–1 SlovakiaUEFA Nations League
  • 6 June 2022Slovakia 0–1 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Slovakia beat Kazakhstan 2–1. The model had made a win for Slovakia its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Leo Sauer 26' for Slovakia, Ramazan·Karimov 35' for Kazakhstan, Dávid Hancko 82' for Slovakia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.