29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

San Marino vs Albania UEFA Nations League prediction & result

San Marino Stadium, Serravalle
Referee: Mihaly Kapraly
Full time0 – 3

Final score: San Marino 0-3 Albania.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% San Marino, 31% draw, 46% Albania — fair odds of 4.35, 3.23 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Albania at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Marino0%Draw1%Albania99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Anis·Mehmetiassist: Rey Manaj
27'
⚽Myrto Uzuni
34'
Kristjan Asllani
Nicola Nanni
39'
45'
🔁Berat Djimsitiout: Marash Kumbulla
🔁Lorenzo Lazzariout: Balda Enea Della
60'
🔁Michele Cevoliout: F. Fabbri
60'
🔁Lorenzo·Capicchioniout: C. Meloni
60'
65'
⚽Rey Manaj
66'
🔁Ernest Muciout: Arber Hoxha
66'
🔁Rey Manajout: Cristian Shpendi
🔁Samuel·Pancottiout: S. Zannoni
74'
74'
🔁Juljan Shehuout: Klevi Qefalija
🔁Gabriel Capicchioniout: Nicholas Giacopetti
78'
80'
🔁Anis·Mehmetiout: Luis Hasa

Match stats — San Marino vs Albania

28%Possession72%
6Shots14
1On target8
5Corners6

Line-ups

San Marino 4-4-2
  • 1E. ColomboG
  • 2G. BenvenutiD
  • 5M. CevoliD
  • 6D. RossiD
  • 3S. GiocondiD
  • 22M. MularoniM
  • 8L. CapicchioniM
  • 21L. LazzariM
  • 19S. PancottiM
  • 9N. NanniF
  • 7G. CapicchioniF
Substitutes
  • 15M. PasoliniD
  • 11N. GiacopettiF
  • 12A. TosiD
  • 17G. BugliD
  • 10S. ZannoniM
  • 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
  • 16C. MeloniM
  • 20P. MarinucciD
  • 4F. FabbriD
Coach: R. Cevoli
Albania 4-2-3-1
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 2S. SinaD
  • 18A. IsmajliD
  • 6B. DjimsitiD
  • 3M. MitajD
  • 16J. ShehuM
  • 8K. AsllaniM
  • 11M. UzuniM
  • 10E. MuçiM
  • 9A. MehmetiM
  • 7R. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 13L. HasaM
  • 21A. HoxhaF
  • 4E. HysajD
  • 15M. KumbullaD
  • 22S. PiliosD
  • 5K. QefalijaM
  • 20Y. RamadaniM
  • 14C. ShpendiF
Coach: R. Maran

Form going into San Marino vs Albania

San Marino

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-7Finland26 September 2026

Albania

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0Belarus26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4San Marino4004116-150
1Albania430183+59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Marino vs Albania

  • 8 September 2021Albania 5–0 San MarinoWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 31 March 2021San Marino 0–2 AlbaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

Leading scorers: San Marino and Albania

San Marino

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Albania

GoalsAssists

  • K. Asllani31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Albania won 3–0 at San Marino. The model had made a win for Albania its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Anis·Mehmeti 21' for Albania, Myrto Uzuni 27' for Albania, Rey Manaj 65' for Albania.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.