Moldova vs Faroe Islands UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Moldova, 29% draw, 44% Faroe Islands — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Faroe Islands at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moldova vs Faroe Islands
Line-ups
- 12D. CeleadnicG
- 5C. CucoșD
- 18I. IovuD
- 6M. GherasimencovD
- 16D. ForovM
- 14V. RăileanuM
- 4V. BabogloM
- 11V. StînăM
- 2O. ReabciukM
- 21D. MandrîcencoM
- 15Petru PopescuF
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 10Ș. BodișteanuM
- 13S. CojocariM
- 17O. DavidM
- 8C. DrosM
- 19D. DumbrăvanuD
- 23A. KozhukharG
- 7N. MoțpanM
- 9S. PerciunM
- 1M. LamhaugeG
- 19J. BenjaminsenD
- 4S. ChukwudiD
- 16G. VatnhamarD
- 5A. EdmundssonD
- 3V. í DavidsenD
- 10Á. SamuelsenM
- 22M. HellisdalM
- 21G. TuriM
- 20H. SørensenM
- 17A. JustinussenF
- 9J. NielsenF
- 12A. PetersenG
- 23B. ReynatrodG
- 8H. VatnsdalD
- 14P. KallsbergF
- 15O. FærøD
- 13M. AgnarssonD
- 2J. DanielsenD
- 11P. KnudsenM
Form going into Moldova vs Faroe Islands
Moldova
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moldova vs Faroe Islands
- 10 September 2023Faroe Islands 0–1 MoldovaEuro Championship - Qualification
- 24 March 2023Moldova 1–1 Faroe IslandsEuro Championship - Qualification
- 7 September 2021Faroe Islands 2–1 MoldovaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 25 March 2021Moldova 1–1 Faroe IslandsWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
The result against the call
Moldova and Faroe Islands drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Faroe Islands at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Viljormur Davidsen (penalty) 26' for Faroe Islands, Sergiu Perciun 66' for Moldova.