29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bulgaria vs Estonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv
Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bulgaria, 27% draw, 24% Estonia — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bulgaria at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bulgaria6%Draw91%Estonia3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Dimitar Velkovski
9'
Borislav Tsonev
37'
45'
🔁karel mustmaaout: Mattias Männilaan
🔁Borislav Tsonevout: Asen Chandarov
45'
🔁Zdravko Dimitrovout: Kristiyan Balov
45'
🔁Kristiyan Stoyanovout: P. Panayotov
45'
48'
Maksim Paskotsi
58'
🔁Mattias Käitout: Martin Miller
58'
🔁Markus Soometsout: Kevor Palumets
🔁Marin Plamenov·Petkovout: Stanislav Ivanov
70'
🔁Ivan Turitsovout: Yoan Stoyanov
73'
74'
🔁Robi Saarmaout: Frank Liivak
89'
Patrik Kristal
Kristian Dimitrov
89'

Match stats — Bulgaria vs Estonia

55%Possession45%
17Shots6
2On target2
6Corners6

Line-ups

Bulgaria 4-3-3
  • 1D. NaumovG
  • 19I. TuritsovD
  • 5K. DimitrovD
  • 13S. VelkovD
  • 21D. VelkovskiD
  • 4I. GruevM
  • 22K. StoyanovM
  • 7B. TsonevM
  • 16M. PetkovF
  • 20L. PetkovF
  • 10Z. DimitrovF
Substitutes
  • 23A. BozhevG
  • 18K. BalovF
  • 14A. ChandarovM
  • 3A. HristovD
  • 9S. IvanovF
  • 8A. KraevM
  • 17M. MinchevF
  • 12D. MitovG
  • 15H. PetrovD
Coach: A. Dimitrov
Estonia 5-3-2
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 7R. SaarmaD
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 5E. TõugjasD
  • 18K. MetsD
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 8M. SoometsM
  • 20M. PoomM
  • 14P. KristalF
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
Substitutes
  • 12M. IgonenG
  • 2M. KuuskD
  • 23F. LiivakM
  • 21M. MännilaanF
  • 17M. MillerM
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 6R. PeetsonD
  • 13J. SalisteD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
Coach: J. Henn

Form going into Bulgaria vs Estonia

Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

Estonia

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Bulgaria411235-24
2Estonia413021+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Bulgaria and Estonia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bulgaria at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.