Goias
vs
CRB
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Goias 2–1 CRB
The model makes it 41% Goias, 26% draw, 33% CRB — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Goias 1.69, CRB 1.44.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Goias's rating is built from 71 Brazilian Serie B matches and CRB's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Goias are 9th on 48 points from 33 games; CRB are 7th on 52 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Goias have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Operario-PR.
- CRB have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Botafogo SP.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended CRB 2–2 Goias.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Goias vs CRB
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Goias at 41% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Goias vs CRB
Goias
- W2-0away to Operario-PR11 October 2026
- W2-1Athletic Club MG6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Goianiense26 September 2026
- W2-1Avai20 September 2026
CRB
- L0-1Botafogo SP18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC12 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
- W3-0Cuiaba27 September 2026
What these results say
- Goias conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CRB scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CRB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 48 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 51 | 48 | +3 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Goias vs CRB
- 12 July 2026CRB 2–2 GoiasSerie B
- 8 October 2025Goias 1–2 CRBSerie B
- 14 June 2025CRB 2–0 GoiasSerie B
- 9 November 2024CRB 0–1 GoiasSerie B
- 26 July 2024Goias 1–1 CRBSerie B
- 12 September 2021CRB 0–1 GoiasSerie B
Leading scorers: Goias and CRB
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu91
CRB
GoalsAssists
- Mikael164
- Crystopher67
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Goias carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.4 for CRB. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Goias and 1.44 for CRB. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Goias rate 0.56 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CRB rate 0.74 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CRB, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Goias the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Goias against 1.44 for CRB. Goias's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.86 for CRB.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Goias at home · CRB away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Goias 33, CRB 34.
Goias score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); CRB have let in 12 there.
CRB score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Goias have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Goias
- vs Ponte Preta8 Nov · Serie Bwin 72%
- at Sport Recife14 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
CRB
- at Nautico Recife8 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Ceara14 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.