Águilas Doradas
vs
Fortaleza FC
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Fortaleza FC
The model makes it 49% Águilas Doradas, 27% draw, 24% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Águilas Doradas 1.60, Fortaleza FC 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Águilas Doradas's rating is built from 73 Colombian Primera A matches and Fortaleza FC's from 78, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,221 matches.
Key facts
- Águilas Doradas are 10th on 19 points from 14 games; Fortaleza FC are 17th on 11 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Águilas Doradas are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Deportes Tolima.
- Fortaleza FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Millonarios.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortaleza FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Fortaleza FC 2–0 Águilas Doradas.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Águilas Doradas at 49% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
- W2-1Deportes Tolima18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga13 October 2026
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
Fortaleza FC
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
What these results say
- Águilas Doradas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Águilas Doradas | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC
- 19 April 2026Fortaleza FC 2–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 4 August 2025Águilas Doradas 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 18 February 2025Fortaleza FC 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 15 November 2024Fortaleza FC 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Águilas Doradas 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 9 July 2016Fortaleza FC 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Águilas Doradas carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.35 for Fortaleza FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Águilas Doradas and 0.95 for Fortaleza FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Águilas Doradas rate 0.68 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Águilas Doradas the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Águilas Doradas against 0.95 for Fortaleza FC. Águilas Doradas's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.62 for Fortaleza FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Águilas Doradas at home · Fortaleza FC away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Águilas Doradas 31, Fortaleza FC 32.
Águilas Doradas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Fortaleza FC have let in 15 there.
Fortaleza FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Águilas Doradas have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Águilas Doradas
- at Once Caldas7 Nov · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Independiente Medellin12 Nov · Primera Awin 41%
Fortaleza FC
- vs Independiente Medellin7 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
- at Bucaramanga12 Nov · Primera Awin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.