Viborg
vs
FC Midtjylland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Viborg 1–2 FC Midtjylland
The model makes it 30% Viborg, 28% draw, 42% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Viborg 1.33, FC Midtjylland 1.77.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Viborg are 3rd on 17 points from 9 games; FC Midtjylland are 2nd on 19 points from 9 games — Superliga.
- Viborg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win at home to FC Nordsjaelland.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Odense.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Midtjylland 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended FC Midtjylland 3–3 Viborg.
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Viborg vs FC Midtjylland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 42% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Viborg vs FC Midtjylland
Viborg
- W4-1FC Nordsjaelland20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg13 September 2026
- L0-2Lyngby4 September 2026
- W3-2away to AC Horsens28 August 2026
- W4-0FC Copenhagen23 August 2026
FC Midtjylland
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Viborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Viborg | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Viborg vs FC Midtjylland
- 4 May 2026FC Midtjylland 3–3 ViborgSuperliga
- 22 March 2026Viborg 1–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 7 December 2025Viborg 3–3 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 20 September 2025FC Midtjylland 2–0 ViborgSuperliga
- 10 November 2024Viborg 1–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 29 September 2024FC Midtjylland 3–1 ViborgSuperliga
Leading scorers: Viborg and FC Midtjylland
Viborg
- M. Søndergaard3 goals2 assists
- A. Beck3 goals1 assist
- C. Nouck3 goals1 assist
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim4 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Viborg carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.86 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Viborg and 1.77 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viborg rate 0.78 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 0.99 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viborg a 2.9% chance of the title and FC Midtjylland 24%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Viborg against 1.77 for FC Midtjylland. Viborg's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.98 for FC Midtjylland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Viborg at home · FC Midtjylland away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Viborg 9, FC Midtjylland 9.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Viborg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Viborg
- at Aarhus25 Oct · Superligawin 35%
- vs AC Horsens1 Nov · Superligawin 43%
- at Odense7 Nov · Superligawin 41%
- vs Randers FC22 Nov · Superligawin 47%
FC Midtjylland
- vs St. Truiden22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
- vs Lyngby25 Oct · Superligawin 58%
- at FC Nordsjaelland1 Nov · Superligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.