Slovenia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Slovenia 0-0 Scotland.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Slovenia, 30% draw, 34% Scotland — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovenia at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovenia vs Scotland
Line-ups
- 1J. OblakG
- 2Ž. KarničnikD
- 23D. BrekaloD
- 6J. BijolD
- 21V. DrkušićD
- 13E. JanžaD
- 20A. MatkoM
- 22A. ČerinM
- 10T. ElšnikM
- 15D. ŠturmM
- 9A. ŠporarF
- 7T. BegićF
- 3J. BalkovecD
- 11Ž. CelarF
- 19T. HorvatM
- 5S. KuzmićD
- 16Žan-Luk LebanG
- 8S. LovrićM
- 14T. SvetlinM
- 12M. VidovšekG
- 1A. GunnG
- 13J. HendryD
- 16S. McKennaD
- 5S. WelshD
- 2A. HickeyM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10R. UreF
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 22N. PattersonD
- 21S. BainG
- 4L. BinksD
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 14L. MillerM
- 15J. McPakeF
- 12L. KellyG
- 18L. GrahamD
- 17B. DoakF
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovenia vs Scotland
- 8 October 2017Slovenia 2–2 ScotlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 26 March 2017Scotland 1–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Slovenia and Scotland
Slovenia
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko22
Scotland
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slovenia and Scotland drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovenia at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.