Cucuta
vs
Llaneros
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Cucuta 1–0 Llaneros
The model makes it 35% Cucuta, 31% draw, 34% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cucuta 1.17, Llaneros 1.16.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Cucuta and Llaneros are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cucuta vs Llaneros
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cucuta at 35% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cucuta vs Llaneros
Cucuta
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pasto5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes Tolima1 September 2026
- W1-0Alianza Valledupar26 August 2026
Llaneros
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
- L1-2Deportes Tolima7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin30 August 2026
- L0-2Millonarios27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cucuta | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Llaneros | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Llaneros
- 17 March 2026Llaneros 2–2 CucutaPrimera A
- 11 September 2024Cucuta 0–1 LlanerosPrimera B
- 31 May 2024Cucuta 1–3 LlanerosPrimera B
- 26 May 2024Llaneros 2–1 CucutaPrimera B
- 4 April 2024Llaneros 0–0 CucutaPrimera B
- 11 November 2023Llaneros 1–0 CucutaPrimera B
The two sides
Cucuta carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.43 for Llaneros. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Cucuta and 1.16 for Llaneros. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cucuta rate 0.58 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Llaneros rate 0.60 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Llaneros, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cucuta a 0% chance of the title and Llaneros 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cucuta the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cucuta against 1.16 for Llaneros. Cucuta's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.39 for Llaneros.