26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Albania vs Belarus UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Arena Kombëtare, Tirana
Referee: Samuel Barrott
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Albania 2-0 Belarus.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Albania, 32% draw, 39% Belarus — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Belarus at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Albania99%Draw1%Belarus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
ivan tikhomirov
32'
Artem Kontsevoy
⚽Kristjan Asllani (pen)
34'
45'
Evgeni Malashevich
⚽Ernest Muciassist: Elseid Hysaj
45+2'
Ylber Ramadani
45+3'
45'
🔁ivan tikhomirovout: Kirill Gomanov
45'
🔁Artem Kontsevoyout: Anton Kovalev
🔁Taulant Seferiout: Myrto Uzuni
61'
65'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: Vitali Lisakovich
65'
🔁Aleksandr Selyavaout: Aleksandr Svirepa
🔁Rey Manajout: Mirlind Daku
74'
🔁Ernest Muciout: Anis·Mehmeti
74'
Stavros Pilios
85'
85'
🔁German Barkovskiyout: Timofey Simanenka
🔁Kristjan Asllaniout: Juljan Shehu
86'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Mario Mitaj
87'
90+2'
Zakhar Volkov

Match stats — Albania vs Belarus

54%Possession46%
20Shots8
3On target2
5Corners2

Line-ups

Albania 4-3-3
  • 1E. BerishaG
  • 4E. HysajD
  • 18A. IsmajliD
  • 6B. DjimsitiD
  • 22S. PiliosD
  • 17T. SeferiM
  • 8K. AsllaniM
  • 20Y. RamadaniM
  • 10E. MuçiF
  • 7R. ManajF
  • 21A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 23M. DajsinaniG
  • 13N. AlijiD
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 15M. KumbullaD
  • 9A. MehmetiM
  • 3M. MitajD
  • 5K. QefalijaM
  • 16J. ShehuM
  • 12A. SherriG
Coach: R. Maran
Belarus 4-2-3-1
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 5V. KalininD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 3I. TikhomirovD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 9M. EbongM
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 22A. KontsevoyM
  • 10V. GromykoM
  • 18E. MalashevichM
  • 11G. BarkovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 15E. ParkhomenkoD
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 7A. ShumanskiyF
  • 23T. SimanenkaF
  • 14A. SvirepaM
  • 19A. LukashovD
  • 17V. LisakovichF
  • 12A. KudravetsG
  • 16A. KovalevM
Coach: V. Goncharenko

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Albania430183+59
2Belarus421152+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albania vs Belarus

  • 18 November 2020Albania 3–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
  • 4 September 2020Belarus 0–2 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Albania and Belarus

Albania

GoalsAssists

  • K. Asllani31

Belarus

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Albania beat Belarus 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Belarus at 39% and given a win for Albania 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kristjan Asllani (penalty) 34' for Albania, Ernest Muci 45+2' for Albania.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.