26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), Gabrovo
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Bulgaria, 29% draw, 29% Luxembourg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bulgaria at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bulgaria0%Draw5%Luxembourg95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Asen Chandarovassist: Dimitar Velkovski
18'
Lukas Petkov
28'
Emil Tsenov
35'
37'
⚽Leandro Barreiro
45+2'
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
45'
🔁Danel Sinaniout: Timothé Rupil
🔁Georgi Rusevout: Stanislav Ivanov
45'
🔁Asen Chandarovout: Martin Minchev
56'
65'
⚽Vincent Thill
🔁Emil Tsenovout: P. Panayotov
68'
🔁Zdravko Dimitrovout: Marin Plamenov·Petkov
68'
72'
🔁Vincent Thillout: Mathias Olesen
🔁Teodor·Valentinov Ivanovout: Stefan Velkov
82'
83'
Dirk Carlson
83'
🔁Hamza Kadamaniout: Sebastien Thill
83'
🔁Aiman Dardariout: jayson videira
90+1'
🔁J. de Sousa Moreira Cruzout: Miguel Fernandes Goncalves

Match stats — Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

52%Possession48%
10Shots15
7On target7
5Corners4

Line-ups

Bulgaria 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. NaumovG
  • 19I. TuritsovD
  • 5K. DimitrovD
  • 15T. IvanovD
  • 21D. VelkovskiD
  • 6E. TsenovM
  • 4I. GruevM
  • 11G. RusevM
  • 14A. ChandarovM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 20L. PetkovF
Substitutes
  • 12D. MitovG
  • 23A. BozhevG
  • 16M. PetkovF
  • 18K. BalovF
  • 3A. HristovD
  • 9S. IvanovF
  • 8A. KraevM
  • 17M. MinchevF
  • 22K. StoyanovM
Coach: A. Dimitrov
Luxembourg 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 18L. JansD
  • 3E. MahmutovićD
  • 13D. CarlsonD
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 16L. BarreiroM
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 10D. SinaniM
  • 7Aiman DardariM
  • 17H. KadamaniF
Substitutes
  • 22M. MartinsD
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 20T. RupilM
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 21S. ThillM
  • 14E. VeigaD
  • 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
  • 2E. DžogovićD
Coach: J. Strasser

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Bulgaria411235-24
4Luxembourg410327-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

  • 15 November 2024Luxembourg 0–1 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
  • 12 October 2024Bulgaria 0–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
  • 20 November 2022Luxembourg 0–0 BulgariaFriendlies
  • 10 October 2017Luxembourg 1–1 BulgariaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 6 September 2016Bulgaria 4–3 LuxembourgWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

The full Bulgaria vs Luxembourg record →

The result against the call

Luxembourg won 2–1 at Bulgaria. The model had leaned towards a win for Bulgaria at 42% and given a win for Luxembourg 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Asen Chandarov 18' for Bulgaria, Leandro Barreiro 37' for Luxembourg, Vincent Thill 65' for Luxembourg.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.