26 September 2026, 01:15 UTC

Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Referee: Ferney·Ossa·Orozco
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Once Caldas 1-3 Bucaramanga.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Once Caldas, 31% draw, 32% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Once Caldas at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Once Caldas0%Draw1%Bucaramanga99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Emerson Batallaassist: Felix Charrupi
12'
⚽Edwin Castroassist: Fabián Sambueza
Helieyker Guzman
34'
40'
Luciano Pons
45'
Fredy Hinestroza
🔁Helieyker Guzmanout: Felipe Gomez
45'
🔁Juan Castañoout: Juan Pablo Nieto
45'
🔁Jaime Alvaradoout: Daniel Marmolejo
45'
59'
⚽Felix Charrupiassist: Luciano Pons
⚽Dayro Morenoassist: Andres Colorado
61'
69'
•Emerson Batalla
71'
🔁Fredy Hinestrozaout: Aldair Gutiérrez
71'
🔁Fabián Sambuezaout: Leonardo Flores
77'
Edwin Castro
77'
Diego Novoa
84'
🔁Emerson Batallaout: Brandon·Caicedo
84'
🔁Luciano Ponsout: Fredy Salazar
89'
Javier Antonio Tetes Ferreyra
🔁Juan Cuestaout: Efraín Navarro
90+1'
90+3'
🔁Felix Charrupiout: Victor Cantillo
90+5'
Fredy Salazar

Match stats — Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga

70%Possession30%
29Shots8
12On target5
9Corners1

Line-ups

Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. CamargoG
  • 22J. CuestaD
  • 16J. CastañoD
  • 30D. LondoñoD
  • 3A. CorreaD
  • 23A. ColoradoM
  • 15J. AlvaradoM
  • 14J. ZapataM
  • 20A. RoaM
  • 21H. GuzmanM
  • 17D. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 9Pipe GómezF
  • 19T. GarcíaM
  • 31Jorman BeltranM
  • 6D. MarmolejoM
  • 4E. NavarroD
  • 5J. NietoM
  • 99J. ParraG
  • 33J. PatiñoD
  • 29E. TorresF
Coach: H. Herrera
Bucaramanga 3-4-2-1
  • 12D. NovoaG
  • 24J. OrtizD
  • 23C. RomañaD
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 6N. CastrillónM
  • 21F. CharrupíM
  • 22F. CastroM
  • 8F. HinestrozaM
  • 10F. SambuezaM
  • 17E. BatallaM
  • 27L. PonsF
Substitutes
  • 16L. MatheusG
  • 19A. GutiérrezD
  • 5A. MurriloF
  • 32N. RamírezM
  • 3M. ReaD
  • 11F. SalazarF
  • 28L. FloresM
  • 30V. CantilloM
  • 9B. CaicedoF
Coach: P. Peirano

Form going into Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga

Once Caldas

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026

Bucaramanga

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Once Caldas187652218+427
4Bucaramanga188823017+1332

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga

  • 19 March 2026Bucaramanga 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 10 September 2025Bucaramanga 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 9 February 2025Once Caldas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 11 August 2024Once Caldas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 10 February 2024Bucaramanga 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A

Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Bucaramanga

Once Caldas

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moreno171
  • J. Zapata133

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bucaramanga won 3–1 at Once Caldas. The model had leaned towards a win for Once Caldas at 37% and given a win for Bucaramanga 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Emerson Batalla 2' for Bucaramanga, Edwin Castro 12' for Bucaramanga, Felix Charrupi 59' for Bucaramanga, Dayro Moreno 61' for Once Caldas.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.