26 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Referee: Miranda Bolano, Daniel
Full time3 – 1

Final score: AD Ceuta FC 3-1 Real Sociedad II.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 43% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Sociedad II at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AD Ceuta FC97%Draw3%Real Sociedad II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
44'
Kazunari Kita
48'
⚽Kazunari Kita
•Carlos Hernández
51'
🔁Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguezout: Jordi Escobar
64'
66'
Kazunari Kita
67'
🔁Alex Marchal Garcíaout: Unax Agote
⚽Carlos Hernándezassist: Kialy Abdoul Kone
67'
José Juan Romero Gil
68'
71'
Gorka Carrera Zarranz
José Matos
71'
71'
🔁Gorka Carrera Zarranzout: Javier Soroeta
72'
🔁Alex Lebarbierout: Ibai Aguirre
72'
🔁Dani Diazout: Gorka Gorosabel
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
73'
🔁Chidiebere Gabriel Okoroout: Marino Illesca
76'
🔁José Antonio Abad Martínezout: Alejandro Meléndez
76'
⚽Carlos Hernándezassist: Kialy Abdoul Kone
81'
🔁Kialy Abdoul Koneout: Abraham Bueno Espinosa
86'
86'
🔁Iker Roperoout: Sydney Osazuwa
🔁Anuar Mohamed Tuhamiout: Arick Betancourt
86'
89'
Unax Agote
Kuki Zalazar
90'
90+7'
Jon Balda
⚽Jordi Escobarassist: Abraham Bueno Espinosa
90+9'

Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II

70%Possession30%
25Shots5
8On target2
9Corners2

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
  • 13Guille VallejoG
  • 2Toni AbadD
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 4Albert CaparrósD
  • 3José MatosD
  • 23A. TuhamiM
  • 15JoaquínM
  • 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
  • 22K. KonéF
  • 8KukiF
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
  • 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 26Arick BetancourtM
  • 10Marino IllescasM
  • 27U. KonareF
  • 1Pedro LópezG
  • 34D. MasM
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
Coach: José Juan Romero
Real Sociedad II 4-4-2
  • 1Aitor FragaG
  • 2Jon GarroD
  • 29Iker RoperoD
  • 5K. KitaD
  • 3Jon BaldaD
  • 7Dani DíazM
  • 14Tomás CarbonellM
  • 6A. LebarbierM
  • 11Alex GarciaM
  • 18Gorka CarreraF
  • 10Arkaitz MariezkurrenaF
Substitutes
  • 16Gorka GorosabelM
  • 12J. OleagaM
  • 20Sydney OsazuwaF
  • 22RupérezD
  • 19Javier SoroetaF
  • 13T. FolgadoG
  • 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
  • 15I. CalderonD
  • 24A. UnaxD
Coach: Ion Ansotegi

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II

AD Ceuta FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
  • L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
  • L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026

Real Sociedad II

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
  • D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026

What these results say

  • AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad II.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21AD Ceuta FC111281025-155
20Real Sociedad II112271422-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II

  • 10 April 2026AD Ceuta FC 0–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
  • 21 December 2025Real Sociedad II 1–3 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Escobar41
  • Carlos Hernández40

Real Sociedad II

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AD Ceuta FC beat Real Sociedad II 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad II at 43% and given a win for AD Ceuta FC 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kazunari Kita 48' for Real Sociedad II, Carlos Hernández 67' for AD Ceuta FC, Carlos Hernández 81' for AD Ceuta FC, Jordi Escobar 90+9' for AD Ceuta FC. Sent off: Arkaitz Mariezkurrena (Real Sociedad II) 33', Kazunari Kita (Real Sociedad II) 66'.

How the call on AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II has moved

First published on 12 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is AD Ceuta FC's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. AD Ceuta FC win29%▼ −6
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Real Sociedad II win43%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.