AD Ceuta FC
vs
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Real Sociedad II
The model makes it 35% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 37% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.47, Real Sociedad II 1.52.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are AD Ceuta FC wins, grey are draws, red are Real Sociedad II wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad II at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Real Sociedad II
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
- D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 0 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
- 10 April 2026AD Ceuta FC 0–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 21 December 2025Real Sociedad II 1–3 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II
AD Ceuta FC
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad II
- Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assists
- Dani Díaz1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.51 for Real Sociedad II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.52 for Real Sociedad II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AD Ceuta FC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad II rate 0.72 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad II the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 1.52 for Real Sociedad II. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.41 for Real Sociedad II.