Crawley Town
vs
Barnet
League Two postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 26% Crawley Town, 27% draw, 47% Barnet — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Crawley Town 1.19, Barnet 2.03.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Crawley Town vs Barnet
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barnet at 47% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crawley Town vs Barnet
Crawley Town
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Northampton1 September 2026
- L0-2Bristol Rovers29 August 2026
Barnet
- W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026
- W2-1Accrington Stanley12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Chesterfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Exeter City1 September 2026
- D2-2Cheltenham29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Barnet
- 17 March 2026Crawley Town 1–1 BarnetLeague Two
- 1 January 2026Barnet 2–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 13 January 2018Crawley Town 2–0 BarnetLeague Two
- 23 September 2017Barnet 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 11 March 2017Barnet 2–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 20 August 2016Crawley Town 1–1 BarnetLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Barnet
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Barnet
- C. Lakin6 goals2 assists
- K. Tshimanga4 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Crawley Town carry a model rating of 5.93 against 6.31 for Barnet. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Crawley Town and 2.03 for Barnet. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crawley Town rate 0.38 in attack and 2.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnet rate 0.70 and 2.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crawley Town a 0% chance of the title and Barnet 31.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Crawley Town against 2.03 for Barnet. Crawley Town's attack/defence rating is 0.38/2.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/2.15 for Barnet.