26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Slovakia vs Moldova UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Štadión Tatran, Prešov
Referee: Juxhin Xhaja
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Slovakia 2-0 Moldova.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Slovakia, 24% draw, 19% Moldova — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slovakia at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovakia99%Draw1%Moldova0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Oleg Reabciuk
Ondrej Duda
28'
⚽Ivan Schranzassist: Tomas Suslov
32'
⚽Ondrej Duda (pen)
40'
55'
🔁Nicky Clescencoout: Ştefan Bodişteanu
55'
🔁Victor Stinaout: Vlad Raileanu
🔁Ivan Schranzout: Martin Valjent
63'
🔁Adrian Kapralikout: Leo Sauer
63'
66'
🔁Vadim Rațăout: Cristian Dros
🔁Dávid Hanckoout: Denis Vavro
72'
🔁David Strelecout: Erik Prekop
72'
Tomas Suslov
72'
74'
🔁Danila Forovout: S. Țurcan
74'
🔁Vladyslav Babogloout: Mihail Stefan
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Tomas Rigo
82'

Match stats — Slovakia vs Moldova

68%Possession32%
17Shots8
3On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Slovakia 4-3-3
  • 12D. GreifG
  • 18I. SchranzD
  • 14M. ŠkriniarD
  • 21A. ObertD
  • 16D. HanckoD
  • 10T. SuslovM
  • 22S. LobotkaM
  • 8O. DudaM
  • 13A. KaprálikF
  • 15D. StrelecF
  • 17L. HaraslínF
Substitutes
  • 7L. SauerF
  • 5Ľ. ŠatkaD
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 6P. PokornýM
  • 2M. FaškoF
  • 20D. ĎurišF
  • 1M. DúbravkaG
  • 9R. BoženíkF
Coach: V. Weiss
Moldova 3-5-1-1
  • 12D. CeleadnicG
  • 18I. IovuD
  • 4V. BabogloD
  • 6M. GherasimencovD
  • 16D. ForovM
  • 7N. MoțpanM
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 11V. StînăM
  • 2O. ReabciukM
  • 20N. CleșcencoM
  • 15Petru PopescuF
Substitutes
  • 8C. DrosM
  • 19D. DumbrăvanuD
  • 10Ș. BodișteanuM
  • 13S. CojocariM
  • 5C. CucoșD
  • 17O. DavidM
  • 14V. RăileanuF
  • 23A. KozhukharG
  • 21D. MandrîcencoM
Coach: L. Popescu

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Slovakia431092+710
3Moldova411238-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Slovakia beat Moldova 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Slovakia at 57%. The goals: Ivan Schranz 32' for Slovakia, Ondrej Duda (penalty) 40' for Slovakia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.