26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Czechia vs Croatia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Eden Arena, Prague
Referee: Simone Sozza
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Czechia 1-2 Croatia.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Czechia, 27% draw, 47% Croatia — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Croatia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Czechia0%Draw3%Croatia97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lukáš Červ
36'
47'
⚽Luka Modrićassist: Igor Matanovic
⚽Adam Karabecassist: Adam Hložek
54'
63'
🔁Igor Matanovicout: Ante Budimir
63'
🔁Franjo Ivanovicout: Marco Pašalić
63'
🔁Luka Sučićout: Mario Pašalić
66'
Luka Vuskovic
🔁Lukáš Červout: Alex Král
67'
🔁Lukas Ambrosout: Matej Radosta
67'
🔁Adam Karabecout: Martin Šubert
74'
76'
🔁Luka Modrićout: Josip Mišić
77'
⚽Marco Pašalićassist: Ivan Perišić
•Matej Radosta
81'
🔁Jiri Slamaout: Ondrej Zmrzly
83'
🔁Pavel Šulcout: Vaclav Sejk
83'
88'
🔁Petar Sučićout: Nikola Vlašić
Vladimír Coufal
90+5'

Match stats — Czechia vs Croatia

44%Possession56%
5Shots16
2On target5
1Corners6

Line-ups

Czechia 4-2-3-1
  • 16L. HorníčekG
  • 5V. CoufalD
  • 4R. HranáčD
  • 6Š. ChaloupekD
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 8M. SadílekM
  • 12L. ČervM
  • 13L. AmbrosM
  • 15P. ŠulcM
  • 9A. KarabecM
  • 10A. HložekF
Substitutes
  • 23A. KinskýG
  • 17P. BuchaM
  • 1M. KovářG
  • 21A. KrálM
  • 2O. KričfalušiD
  • 19R. MacekM
  • 18M. RadostaM
  • 22M. SáčekD
  • 11V. SejkF
Coach: Santi
Croatia 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. LivakovićG
  • 2J. StanišićD
  • 5L. VuškovićD
  • 4J. GvardiolD
  • 14I. PerišićD
  • 10L. ModrićM
  • 8M. KovačićM
  • 21L. SučićM
  • 17P. SučićM
  • 16F. IvanovićM
  • 20I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 13N. VlašićM
  • 6J. ŠutaloD
  • 3I. SmolčićD
  • 19Marco PasalicF
  • 15Mario PasalicM
  • 12I. PandurG
  • 22J. MišićM
  • 7L. MajerM
  • 9A. KramarićF
Coach: S. Bilić

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Czechia4004210-80
3Croatia4103414-103

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Czechia vs Croatia

  • 9 October 2025Czechia 0–0 CroatiaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 9 June 2025Croatia 5–1 CzechiaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 18 June 2021Croatia 1–1 CzechiaEuro Championship
  • 17 June 2016Czechia 2–2 CroatiaEuro Championship

The full Czechia vs Croatia record →

The result against the call

Croatia won 2–1 at Czechia. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Croatia at 47%. The goals: Luka Modrić 47' for Croatia, Adam Karabec 54' for Czechia, Marco Pašalić 77' for Croatia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.