FC Vitebsk
vs
ML Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML Vitebsk
The model makes it 30% FC Vitebsk, 28% draw, 42% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Vitebsk 1.13, ML Vitebsk 1.44.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to ML Vitebsk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Vitebsk are 7th on 37 points from 24 games; ML Vitebsk are top on 47 points from 22 games — Premier League.
- FC Vitebsk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC Isloch Minsk R..
- ML Vitebsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 5-1 win away to FC Gomel.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Vitebsk 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 June 2026, ended ML Vitebsk 1–2 FC Vitebsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ML Vitebsk at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
- W6-0Torpedo Zhodino20 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slavia Mozyr4 September 2026
- W2-0Naftan28 August 2026
ML Vitebsk
- W5-1away to FC Gomel11 October 2026
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina2 September 2026
What these results say
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 37 |
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 47 | 18 | +29 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Vitebsk
Chance to finish in the top four · 2% today
ML Vitebsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 59% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk
- 13 June 2026ML Vitebsk 1–2 FC VitebskPremier League
- 26 October 2025FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML VitebskPremier League
- 31 May 2025ML Vitebsk 2–0 FC VitebskPremier League
- 7 October 2023ML Vitebsk 0–4 FC Vitebsk1. Division
- 4 June 2023FC Vitebsk 1–0 ML Vitebsk1. Division
- 21 June 2022ML Vitebsk 2–3 FC VitebskCoppa
The two sides
FC Vitebsk carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.53 for ML Vitebsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for FC Vitebsk and 1.44 for ML Vitebsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Vitebsk rate 0.48 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ML Vitebsk rate 0.76 and 1.45.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Vitebsk a 0% chance of the title and ML Vitebsk 58.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Vitebsk against 1.44 for ML Vitebsk. FC Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.45 for ML Vitebsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Vitebsk at home · ML Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Vitebsk 24, ML Vitebsk 22.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Vitebsk
- at Dinamo Brest31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Dinamo Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
ML Vitebsk
- vs FC Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- at Naftan7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.