Naftan
vs
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Naftan 1–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.
The model makes it 19% Naftan, 23% draw, 58% FC Isloch Minsk R. — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Naftan 1.09, FC Isloch Minsk R. 2.23.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Isloch Minsk R. are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Naftan are 15th on 17 points from 24 games; FC Isloch Minsk R. are 2nd on 46 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Naftan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Belshina.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to FC Vitebsk.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Isloch Minsk R. 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 June 2026, ended FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–1 Naftan.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Isloch Minsk R. at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Naftan
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Minsk2 September 2026
FC Isloch Minsk R.
- D0-0away to FC Vitebsk11 October 2026
- L1-2Neman19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Gomel13 September 2026
- D1-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk7 September 2026
- W2-0Bate Borisov3 September 2026
What these results say
- Naftan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Naftan had three goals or more.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 17 |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Naftan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 98% today
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 13% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Naftan vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
- 12 June 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–1 NaftanPremier League
- 7 February 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 1–0 NaftanFriendlies Clubs
- 29 August 2025Naftan 2–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
- 19 April 2025FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 NaftanPremier League
- 27 October 2024FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 NaftanPremier League
- 1 June 2024Naftan 2–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
The two sides
Naftan carry a model rating of 5.93 against 6.42 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Naftan and 2.23 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Naftan rate 0.48 in attack and 3.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Isloch Minsk R. rate 0.58 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Naftan a 0% chance of the title and FC Isloch Minsk R. 12.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Isloch Minsk R. the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Naftan against 2.23 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Naftan's attack/defence rating is 0.48/3.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.39 for FC Isloch Minsk R..
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Naftan at home · FC Isloch Minsk R. away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Naftan 24, FC Isloch Minsk R. 23.
FC Isloch Minsk R. score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Naftan have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Naftan
- at Baranovichi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs ML Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- at Dinamo Brest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 10%
- vs Dinamo Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
- vs Slavia Mozyr31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- at Belshina7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.