Bate Borisov
vs
Belshina
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bate Borisov 1–0 Belshina
The model makes it 47% Bate Borisov, 28% draw, 25% Belshina — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bate Borisov 1.58, Belshina 0.99.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bate Borisov are 13th on 21 points from 23 games; Belshina are 14th on 21 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Bate Borisov have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Slavia Mozyr.
- Belshina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Naftan.
- Last 6 meetings: Bate Borisov 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 June 2026, ended Belshina 1–1 Bate Borisov.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bate Borisov vs Belshina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bate Borisov at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bate Borisov vs Belshina
Bate Borisov
- W2-1Slavia Mozyr10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 September 2026
- D2-2Naftan13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Brest7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.3 September 2026
Belshina
- L1-4away to Naftan10 October 2026
- W2-0FC Minsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Vitebsk12 September 2026
- D2-2Neman6 September 2026
- D1-1away to ML Vitebsk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bate Borisov
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Belshina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Belshina
- 12 June 2026Belshina 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 28 February 2026Bate Borisov 2–1 BelshinaFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2023Bate Borisov 2–1 BelshinaPremier League
- 6 May 2023Belshina 0–3 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 11 March 2023Bate Borisov 5–0 BelshinaCoppa
- 4 March 2023Belshina 0–5 Bate BorisovCoppa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bate Borisov carry a model rating of 6.08 against 5.98 for Belshina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Bate Borisov and 0.99 for Belshina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bate Borisov rate 0.40 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belshina rate 0.43 and 2.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bate Borisov the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bate Borisov against 0.99 for Belshina. Bate Borisov's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.43 for Belshina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bate Borisov at home · Belshina away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bate Borisov 23, Belshina 23.
Bate Borisov score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Belshina have let in 16 there.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Bate Borisov have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bate Borisov
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at FC Gomel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Belshina
- at Torpedo Zhodino31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Baranovichi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.