Neman
vs
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Neman 2–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev
The model makes it 60% Neman, 24% draw, 16% FC Dnepr Mogilev — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Neman 1.97, FC Dnepr Mogilev 0.76.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: Neman are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Neman's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Dnepr Mogilev's from 25, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Neman are 5th on 43 points from 25 games; FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th on 19 points from 25 games — Premier League.
- Neman have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ML Vitebsk.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bate Borisov.
- Last 6 meetings: Neman 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–0 Neman.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Neman at 60% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
Neman
Premier League
- L0-1away to ML Vitebsk18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026
- W3-0Baranovichi10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.19 September 2026
- W1-0Torpedo Zhodino12 September 2026
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League
- W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dinamo Brest20 September 2026
- D1-1ML Vitebsk13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Baranovichi6 September 2026
What these results say
- Neman won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Neman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 43 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 28 June 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–0 NemanPremier League
- 27 January 2025FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 NemanFriendlies Clubs
- 25 August 2024Neman 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 13 April 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–2 NemanPremier League
- 23 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 NemanFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2022Neman 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
The two sides
Neman carry a model rating of 6.33 against 5.99 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Neman and 0.76 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neman rate 0.51 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dnepr Mogilev rate 0.43 and 2.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neman the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Neman against 0.76 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. Neman's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.38 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
How the model reaches 60% for Neman to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neman to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Neman's ratings take away 25 points and FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings add 41 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Neman's ratings19%−25
- FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings60%+41
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neman at home · FC Dnepr Mogilev away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Neman 25, FC Dnepr Mogilev 25.
Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 9 there.
FC Dnepr Mogilev score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Neman have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Neman
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs FC Gomel28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- vs FC Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.