Naftan
vs
ML Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Naftan 0–2 ML Vitebsk
The model makes it 14% Naftan, 19% draw, 67% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 7.14, 5.26 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Naftan 0.97, ML Vitebsk 2.68.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: ML Vitebsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Naftan's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and ML Vitebsk's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Naftan are bottom on 17 points from 25 games; ML Vitebsk are top on 53 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Naftan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Torpedo Zhodino.
- ML Vitebsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Neman.
- Last 5 meetings: ML Vitebsk 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended ML Vitebsk 2–1 Naftan.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Naftan vs ML Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ML Vitebsk at 67% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Naftan vs ML Vitebsk
Naftan
Premier League
- L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
ML Vitebsk
Premier League
- W1-0Neman18 October 2026
- W2-0Torpedo Zhodino15 October 2026
- W5-1away to FC Gomel11 October 2026
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
What these results say
- Naftan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- ML Vitebsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Naftan | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 56 | -32 | 17 |
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 50 | 18 | +32 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Naftan vs ML Vitebsk
- 27 June 2026ML Vitebsk 2–1 NaftanPremier League
- 22 August 2025ML Vitebsk 2–0 NaftanPremier League
- 12 April 2025Naftan 0–3 ML VitebskPremier League
- 14 July 2024ML Vitebsk 2–1 NaftanCoppa
- 11 February 2024Naftan 1–2 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs
A clear gap in the ratings
Naftan carry a model rating of 5.91 against 6.55 for ML Vitebsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Naftan and 2.68 for ML Vitebsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Naftan rate 0.45 in attack and 3.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ML Vitebsk rate 0.73 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Naftan a 0% chance of the title and ML Vitebsk 63.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Naftan against 2.68 for ML Vitebsk. Naftan's attack/defence rating is 0.45/3.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.33 for ML Vitebsk.
How the model reaches 67% for ML Vitebsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ML Vitebsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Naftan's ratings add 54 points and ML Vitebsk's ratings take away 16 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Naftan's ratings83%+54
- ML Vitebsk's ratings67%−16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Naftan at home · ML Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Naftan 25, ML Vitebsk 24.
ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Naftan have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Naftan
- at Dinamo Brest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 11%
- vs Dinamo Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
ML Vitebsk
- vs Slavia Mozyr21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- at Belshina28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.