Podbeskidzie
vs
Warta Poznań
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbeskidzie 1–0 Warta Poznań
The model makes it 38% Podbeskidzie, 28% draw, 34% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.41, Warta Poznań 1.31.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Podbeskidzie are 15th on 11 points from 10 games; Warta Poznań are 3rd on 18 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Podbeskidzie are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Warta Poznań have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Unia Skierniewice.
- Last 6 meetings: Warta Poznań 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Warta Poznań 1–2 Podbeskidzie.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbeskidzie at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań
Podbeskidzie
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice29 August 2026
Warta Poznań
- W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
What these results say
- Podbeskidzie failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
- Warta Poznań scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Podbeskidzie
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Warta Poznań
Chance to finish in the top four · 40% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań
- 19 April 2026Warta Poznań 1–2 PodbeskidzieII Liga - East
- 4 October 2025Podbeskidzie 2–3 Warta PoznańII Liga - East
- 21 March 2021Warta Poznań 2–0 PodbeskidzieEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2020Podbeskidzie 1–2 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 9 March 2020Podbeskidzie 2–0 Warta PoznańI Liga
- 21 August 2019Warta Poznań 2–1 PodbeskidzieI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Podbeskidzie carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.35 for Warta Poznań. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Podbeskidzie and 1.31 for Warta Poznań. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Podbeskidzie rate 0.52 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Warta Poznań rate 0.62 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Warta Poznań, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbeskidzie a 0.3% chance of the title and Warta Poznań 9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbeskidzie the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Podbeskidzie against 1.31 for Warta Poznań. Podbeskidzie's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.67 for Warta Poznań.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Podbeskidzie at home · Warta Poznań away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Podbeskidzie 10, Warta Poznań 11.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 2 there.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Podbeskidzie have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Podbeskidzie
- at Arka Gdynia7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Nieciecza21 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
Warta Poznań
- vs Polonia Warszawa7 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
- at Ruch Chorzów21 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce28 Nov · I Ligawin 53%
- at Stal Rzeszów5 Dec · I Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.