Cadiz
vs
Oviedo
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Cadiz 0–1 Oviedo
The model makes it 31% Cadiz, 29% draw, 40% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cadiz 1.12, Oviedo 1.37.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Oviedo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cadiz's rating is built from 52 Segunda División matches and Oviedo's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,047 matches.
Key facts
- Cadiz are 20th on 7 points from 10 games; Oviedo are 9th on 17 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Cadiz have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Granada CF.
- Oviedo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to AD Ceuta FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Cadiz 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 June 2025, ended Oviedo 2–1 Cadiz.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cadiz vs Oviedo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cadiz vs Oviedo
Cadiz
Segunda División
- L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026
- W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
Oviedo
Segunda División
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
- W3-1Eibar12 October 2026
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
What these results say
- Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Oviedo
- 1 June 2025Oviedo 2–1 CadizSegunda División
- 26 October 2024Cadiz 2–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 4 July 2020Cadiz 2–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 15 December 2019Oviedo 0–2 CadizSegunda División
- 3 February 2019Oviedo 2–1 CadizSegunda División
- 1 September 2018Cadiz 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Cadiz and Oviedo
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero31
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cadiz carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.58 for Oviedo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Cadiz and 1.37 for Oviedo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cadiz rate 0.57 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oviedo rate 0.75 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cadiz a 0% chance of the title and Oviedo 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cadiz against 1.37 for Oviedo. Cadiz's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.28 for Oviedo.
How the model reaches 40% for Oviedo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oviedo to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Cadiz's ratings add 25 points and Oviedo's ratings take away 15 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Cadiz's ratings55%+25
- Oviedo's ratings40%−15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cadiz at home · Oviedo away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CadizOviedo
Cadiz are 20th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 20th so far); Oviedo are 9th after 10 (between 5th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Cadiz 10, Oviedo 10.
Cadiz score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Oviedo have let in 2 there.
Oviedo score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Cadiz have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cadiz
- at Eibar15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 16%
- at Real Sociedad II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Cordoba29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
Oviedo
- vs Girona14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- at Cordoba22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Celta de Vigo II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.