Burgos
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Celta de Vigo II
The model makes it 48% Burgos, 28% draw, 24% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.54, Celta de Vigo II 0.91.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Burgos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Burgos's rating is built from 52 Segunda División matches and Celta de Vigo II's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,047 matches.
Key facts
- Burgos are 8th on 17 points from 10 games; Celta de Vigo II are 14th on 12 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sabadell.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tenerife.
- Last 2 meetings: Burgos 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2021, ended Burgos 1–0 Celta de Vigo II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Segunda División
- W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
- L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División
- D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
- 9 May 2021Burgos 1–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 18 April 2021Celta de Vigo II 1–1 BurgosPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Burgos and Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Burgos carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.49 for Celta de Vigo II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Burgos and 0.91 for Celta de Vigo II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.62 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta de Vigo II rate 0.78 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 1.7% chance of the title and Celta de Vigo II 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Burgos against 0.91 for Celta de Vigo II. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.62/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.61 for Celta de Vigo II.
How the model reaches 48% for Burgos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burgos to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Burgos's ratings take away 13 points and Celta de Vigo II's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Burgos's ratings30%−13
- Celta de Vigo II's ratings48%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Celta de Vigo II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BurgosCelta de Vigo II
Burgos are 8th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Celta de Vigo II are 14th after 10 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 10, Celta de Vigo II 10.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Burgos have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- at Leganes13 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Albacete22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
- at Eibar29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
Celta de Vigo II
- at Albacete16 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Valladolid22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Oviedo29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.