Al-Dhafra
vs
Dubai United
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Dhafra 1–2 Dubai United
The model makes it 27% Al-Dhafra, 25% draw, 48% Dubai United — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Dhafra 1.39, Dubai United 2.27.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Dhafra are 12th on 3 points from 5 games; Dubai United are 8th on 7 points from 5 games — Pro League.
- Al-Dhafra have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Hatta SC.
- Dubai United have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
- Last 5 meetings: Al-Dhafra 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2025, ended Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai United.
All UAE Pro League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dubai United at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United
Al-Dhafra
- W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
- L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai22 August 2026
- L1-3Sharjah FC15 August 2026
Dubai United
- D1-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10 September 2026
- L3-4away to Sharjah FC5 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Ittihad Kalba28 August 2026
- W3-2away to Baniyas SC23 August 2026
- L1-5away to Al-Wasl FC15 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Dhafra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Dhafra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dubai United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dubai United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dubai United.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United
- 10 May 2025Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai UnitedDivision 1
- 11 January 2025Dubai United 3–0 Al-DhafraDivision 1
- 27 September 2024Al-Dhafra 1–0 Dubai UnitedPresidents Cup
- 27 April 2024Dubai United 1–3 Al-DhafraDivision 1
- 16 December 2023Al-Dhafra 1–1 Dubai UnitedDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al-Dhafra and Dubai United
Al-Dhafra
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Dubai United
- Willy Semedo3 goals1 assist
- Adeel Al Chadli2 goals2 assists
- S. Babicka2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Dhafra carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.41 for Dubai United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Al-Dhafra and 2.27 for Dubai United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Dhafra rate 0.40 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dubai United rate 0.80 and 2.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dubai United the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Dhafra against 2.27 for Dubai United. Al-Dhafra's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/2.07 for Dubai United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Dhafra at home · Dubai United away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Dhafra 5, Dubai United 5.
Al-Dhafra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Dubai United have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Dhafra
- at Al-Wasl FC30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Al-Ittihad Kalba7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Al Ain19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Baniyas SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs Al Nasr13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 26%
Dubai United
- vs Khorfakkan30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 47%
- at Al Nasr8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al Wahda FC21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Ajman4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Jazira13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.